Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

977 
FZAK67 PAJK 040831 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1131 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-041400-
1131 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR SW GULF SAT WILL MOVE N ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AND PUSH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ310-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1131 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE...STRONGEST WINDS
SOUTHWEST PORTION. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

946 
FZAK67 PAJK 041247
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTANT STORM IN THE FAR
WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT THEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WESTERN HALF. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
NORTHERN HALF IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT...STRONGEST EASTERN HALF. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT...STRONGEST EASTERN HALF. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS HAS CREATED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE FLATTENING
RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS CREATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATER SATURDAY.

 WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING TONIGHT EXPECT THAT THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES BUT VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS PERSIST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE STEADY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO FALL AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES TO FALL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST WEEK
EXPECTING A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH UP TO
1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE KEEPS VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE GULF WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE CAPE SUCKLING MARINE ZONE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MARINE
ZONES 43 AND 51 BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE FRONT. TIGHTENING
EAST-WEST GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN CROSS SOUND
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS.

 USED THE ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM... LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS BEFORE WEAKENING. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WHIT THESE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AK GULF AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE BRINGING
BANDS OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIP. TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR THE NORTHERN REGION. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE DAY TIME FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WITH A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK HAVE BEGUN TO TREND TEMPERATURES UP BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION STILL
KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING.

 THE STORM FORCE FRONT IN THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HEAVY
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AK GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF SUNDAY. WHILE
MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
THE REGION BUT THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A WEAK OPEN WAVE TO A
CLOSED LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE. PRECIP SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL CHANGE OVER THE RAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE COLD TEMPS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS SNOW. DO EXPECT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL TO
BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING 12 HOUR SNOW TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
HAINES AND HAINES HIGHWAY REGION WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER.
WHILE SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH THE
FRONT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH
SO ONLY EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

 THE PARENT LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS THE BERING
SEA SUNDAY AS A SECOND LOW MOVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AK GULF MONDAY
REACHING THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. BY THIS TIME MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN OUT OF SYNC AND SEEING A LARGE SPREAD IN POSITION AND
LOCATIONS OF THE DEVELOPING LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS IN THE
GULF. STILL EXPECT WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

 WHILE THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPING
WAVE IN THE GULF THEY WERE IF FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PARENT LOW.
LEANED MORE TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH RESULTED IN
NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. BEGAN
TO BLEND IN FORM 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR DAY FOR WITH THE NEXT
ADVANCING LOW THEN USED NEW WPC THROUGH DAY 8. WPC NOW USING AN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DETERIORATED.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH
DROPS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NEXT SYSTEMS.
SOME LOW CONFIDENCE INITIALLY WITH SOME DETAILS ESPECIALLY SNOW
TOTALS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

TPS/PRB