Gale Warning 67, NWS Juneau, AK

603 
FZAK51 PAJK 201923 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-210100-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NW TO BE
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON AND
BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ011-210100-
GLACIER BAY-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-210100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-210100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NORTH WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-210100-
ICY STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS
WESTERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-210100-
CROSS SOUND-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-210100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-210100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-210100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. SW SWELL RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-210100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-210100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SW SWELL NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-210100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVE CALM BETWEEN STORMS TODAY WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH WIND ON THE INSIDE
EITHER. SITUATION WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE GULF. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS BEEN PICKING
UP OCCASIONAL HITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MARINE ZONE 310 AND COASTAL ZONE 52 FOR THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND AND WEST OF CHATHAM STRAIT. CATEGORICAL POPS
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, WHERE HAVE LIMITED THINGS TO CHANCE POPS.

SOME COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE LAST FRONT AND THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE UP TO AN
INCH FOR ZONE 17 OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF YAKUTAT...AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHWAYS. IN AND AROUND JUNEAU, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION THERE. IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, HYDER MAY SEE
UP TO AN INCH AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...MORE RAIN.

PRE-FRONTAL WINDS CLOSE TO THEIR MAXIMUM STRENGTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AS FAR
SOUTH AS CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS DOWN PAST THE
DIXON ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ALSO FOR CROSS SOUND TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ENTRANCES AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW.
ICY STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND AS WELL BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY REMAINS BELOW 2.0 AND
THAT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL.

PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES THERE. UPDATED POP AND QPF WITH A BLEND OF GFS, GEM,
AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TWEAKS MADE PRIMARILY WITH
NAM. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...
MEAN POSITION OF UPR LOWS HAS BEEN ALONG 160W DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF A BLOCK CALLED THE WEST COAST RIDGE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO 130W BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STILL
DRIVE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE PANHANDLE AND A MONDO LONG LONG
SOUTH FETCH OF MOISTURE SETTING UP FOR YAKUTAT AND POINTS WESTWARD.
JUST FOR A FIRST GUESS AT AMOUNTS...THE 19/12Z AK-GFS-40 GENERATES
NEARLY 2 INCHES WATER IN 6 HOURS FOR YAKUTAT ENDING 12Z THU AND
PLENTY OF WATER EVEN TO THE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. ADD TO THIS
MODERATE TO STRONG SE WIND AROUND THEN AND WE HAVE TO START
THINKING ABOUT HYDRO PROBLEMS AND LANDSLIDES AGAIN THU BUT WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO REASSESS AND ADJUST FORECASTS IF THIS PANS OUT.

FLOW ALOFT GAINS A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT STARTING FRI AS PER WPC
PROGS BUT STILL THE OVERALL THEME IS WARM & WET WITH FEW BREAKS AND
WINDY AT TIMES. USED 19/12Z ECMWF FOR MAIN GUIDANCE UNTIL FRI. GFS
HAD TO HELP WITH QPF. PREFER WPC PRES AND WIND ALOFT FRI THRU MON
(DAY 8) WHICH USED A NICE BLEND OF ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
OVERALL PATTERN. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE TIMING OF DETAILS SO BROAD
BRUSHED ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. NO SIGN OF TRUE WINTER
RETURNING AT THIS POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

FRITSCH/JC