Gale Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

553 
FZAK67 PAJK 202138 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1235 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-210100-
1235 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NW TO BE
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON
AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-210100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1235 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...EAST OF 140 W...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. WEST OF
140 W...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 57 N...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
EVENING DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SOUTH OF 57
N...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVE CALM BETWEEN STORMS TODAY WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH WIND ON THE INSIDE
EITHER. SITUATION WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE GULF. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS BEEN PICKING
UP OCCASIONAL HITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MARINE ZONE 310 AND COASTAL ZONE 52 FOR THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND AND WEST OF CHATHAM STRAIT. CATEGORICAL POPS
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, WHERE HAVE LIMITED THINGS TO CHANCE POPS.

SOME COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE LAST FRONT AND THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE UP TO AN
INCH FOR ZONE 17 OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF YAKUTAT...AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHWAYS. IN AND AROUND JUNEAU, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION THERE. IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, HYDER MAY SEE
UP TO AN INCH AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...MORE RAIN.

PRE-FRONTAL WINDS CLOSE TO THEIR MAXIMUM STRENGTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AS FAR
SOUTH AS CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS DOWN PAST THE
DIXON ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ALSO FOR CROSS SOUND TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ENTRANCES AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW.
ICY STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND AS WELL BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY REMAINS BELOW 2.0 AND
THAT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL.

PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES THERE. UPDATED POP AND QPF WITH A BLEND OF GFS, GEM,
AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TWEAKS MADE PRIMARILY WITH
NAM. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...
MEAN POSITION OF UPR LOWS HAS BEEN ALONG 160W DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF A BLOCK CALLED THE WEST COAST RIDGE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO 130W BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STILL
DRIVE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE PANHANDLE AND A MONDO LONG LONG
SOUTH FETCH OF MOISTURE SETTING UP FOR YAKUTAT AND POINTS WESTWARD.
JUST FOR A FIRST GUESS AT AMOUNTS...THE 19/12Z AK-GFS-40 GENERATES
NEARLY 2 INCHES WATER IN 6 HOURS FOR YAKUTAT ENDING 12Z THU AND
PLENTY OF WATER EVEN TO THE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. ADD TO THIS
MODERATE TO STRONG SE WIND AROUND THEN AND WE HAVE TO START
THINKING ABOUT HYDRO PROBLEMS AND LANDSLIDES AGAIN THU BUT WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO REASSESS AND ADJUST FORECASTS IF THIS PANS OUT.

FLOW ALOFT GAINS A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT STARTING FRI AS PER WPC
PROGS BUT STILL THE OVERALL THEME IS WARM & WET WITH FEW BREAKS AND
WINDY AT TIMES. USED 19/12Z ECMWF FOR MAIN GUIDANCE UNTIL FRI. GFS
HAD TO HELP WITH QPF. PREFER WPC PRES AND WIND ALOFT FRI THRU MON
(DAY 8) WHICH USED A NICE BLEND OF ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
OVERALL PATTERN. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE TIMING OF DETAILS SO BROAD
BRUSHED ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. NO SIGN OF TRUE WINTER
RETURNING AT THIS POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

FRITSCH/JC