Gale Warning 65, NWS Juneau, AK

217 
FZAK52 PAJK 200538 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-202345-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-202345-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-202345-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-202345-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-202345-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN DIMINISHING LATE.
.MON...E WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-202345-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
838 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN DIMINISHING LATE.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

378 
FZAK52 PAJK 201247
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NW TO BE
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY
AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING 19 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING
TO 18 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVE CALM BETWEEN STORMS TODAY WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH WIND ON THE INSIDE
EITHER. SITUATION WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INLAND FROM THE GULF. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS BEEN PICKING
UP OCCASIONAL HITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MARINE ZONE 310 AND COASTAL ZONE 52 FOR THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND AND WEST OF CHATHAM STRAIT. CATEGORICAL POPS
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, WHERE HAVE LIMITED THINGS TO CHANCE POPS.

SOME COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE LAST FRONT AND THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE UP TO AN
INCH FOR ZONE 17 OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF YAKUTAT...AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHWAYS. IN AND AROUND JUNEAU, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION THERE. IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, HYDER MAY SEE
UP TO AN INCH AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...MORE RAIN.

PRE-FRONTAL WINDS CLOSE TO THEIR MAXIMUM STRENGTH AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AS FAR
SOUTH AS CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS DOWN PAST THE
DIXON ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ALSO FOR CROSS SOUND TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ENTRANCES AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW.
ICY STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND AS WELL BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY REMAINS BELOW 2.0 AND
THAT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL.

PRESSURE AND WIND FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES THERE. UPDATED POP AND QPF WITH A BLEND OF GFS, GEM,
AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TWEAKS MADE PRIMARILY WITH
NAM. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...
MEAN POSITION OF UPR LOWS HAS BEEN ALONG 160W DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF A BLOCK CALLED THE WEST COAST RIDGE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO 130W BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STILL
DRIVE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE PANHANDLE AND A MONDO LONG LONG
SOUTH FETCH OF MOISTURE SETTING UP FOR YAKUTAT AND POINTS WESTWARD.
JUST FOR A FIRST GUESS AT AMOUNTS...THE 19/12Z AK-GFS-40 GENERATES
NEARLY 2 INCHES WATER IN 6 HOURS FOR YAKUTAT ENDING 12Z THU AND
PLENTY OF WATER EVEN TO THE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. ADD TO THIS
MODERATE TO STRONG SE WIND AROUND THEN AND WE HAVE TO START
THINKING ABOUT HYDRO PROBLEMS AND LANDSLIDES AGAIN THU BUT WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO REASSESS AND ADJUST FORECASTS IF THIS PANS OUT.

FLOW ALOFT GAINS A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT STARTING FRI AS PER WPC
PROGS BUT STILL THE OVERALL THEME IS WARM & WET WITH FEW BREAKS AND
WINDY AT TIMES. USED 19/12Z ECMWF FOR MAIN GUIDANCE UNTIL FRI. GFS
HAD TO HELP WITH QPF. PREFER WPC PRES AND WIND ALOFT FRI THRU MON
(DAY 8) WHICH USED A NICE BLEND OF ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
OVERALL PATTERN. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE TIMING OF DETAILS SO BROAD
BRUSHED ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. NO SIGN OF TRUE WINTER
RETURNING AT THIS POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

FRITSCH/JC