Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WARM AND GENERALLY WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THE STORM LOW CENTER
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS SHOWN SOME NORTH MOVEMENT. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT STRETCHED NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AK PEN TO OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. RAIN FELL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WINDWARD
LOCALS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA. SNOW WAS EVIDENT OVER OVER THE SW
ALASKA WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH GULF IN
ADVANCE OF THE NORTH MOVING WEATHER FRONT.

THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM HEADS NORTH TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND FRI EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT...BRINGING SURGES OF MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OVERALL WERE GOOD. SYNOPTIC FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE. TIMING OF FRONTAL WAVES MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THOUGH
THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THR BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON COULD TOTAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH VALUES REACHING 4000 TO 6000 FT INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO
8000 FT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.

STRONG GAP FLOWS AND GALES/STORMS OVER THE GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND INLAND. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THU AS THE WEAKENING STORM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH
TOWARD THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALSO
INCREASE THU NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LATEST LOW IN THE TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS MAIN CENTER WILL THEN MOVE TO NEAR SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND FRI EVENING. SNOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE WEST/NORTH ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COUPLE OF MINOR WAVES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH FRI.

.EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BRING
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL TO THE PRIBILOFS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM
AIR MOVES WEST. WILL ISSUE WATCH AT THIS POINT AND EVALUATE THE NEXT
RUN. RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/WEST ALEUTIANS WILL GIVE
WAY TO LOWER PRESSURE AND MORE UNSETTLE WEATHER THU NIGHT/FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT THIS ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN BREAKING DOWN
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOTHING WORTH LATCHING ONTO AT THIS POINT. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE COMING DAYS. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...GALES 119 150 155 160 170 172 173 174 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 14