Blizzard Watch 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
WWAK42 PAFC 231401
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKST THU JAN 23 2014


AKZ195-240315-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.140123T2100Z-140124T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0006.140123T2100Z-140124T0600Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
501 AM AKST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH 35 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS PICK
  UP AND SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
  DURING THE LATE EVENING AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY AND
  TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
COAST THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND AK. A 175 KT JET IS TAKING AIM WITH AN ASSOCIATED FIREHOSE
OF MOISTURE AT THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS IT
TRAVELS DUE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS ALL OF EASTERN RUSSIA...KAMCHATKA...AND THE
WESTERN BERING...AND EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. EMBEDDED
CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIAN AND THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A MASSIVE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN IS ADJACENT TO AN
EQUALLY MASSIVE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF AK AND SOUTHEAST AK. A
MUCH WEAKER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A WEAK LOW
WEST OF ATTU. REMAINS OF A WEATHER FRONT ARE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WHERE THAT FIREHOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
A NEW WAVE ALONG THE FIREHOSE IS DEVELOPING AROUND 40 N...WELL SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TO
THE NORTHERN BERING BY FRI BEFORE WEAKENING OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
SAT AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE THE WAVE ON THE FIREHOSE MAKES ITS
WAY TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND FRONT MOVING INLAND DURING THAT TIME. BY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL REASSERT
ITSELF WITH A WESTWARD PUSH...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TO KODIAK ISLAND. ON SUN COMPLEX LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONSOLIDATE AND BRING A FOURTH FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

IN THE WEST A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS AND BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATE ON SUN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHAIN AND PERSIST MON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AROUND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW
AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD TOMORROW SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN WITH THE COLD
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL AFFECT CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PRECIPITATION AROUND BRISTOL BAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. OVERNIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST AREAS OF THE MAINLAND. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TOMORROW WHILE THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. ANOTHER WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND WIND THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING...ONLY TO BEGIN ANEW TONIGHT AS THE WAVE ON THE FIREHOSE
REACHES THE COAST WITH THE SECOND FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AND DIMINISH FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS THE THIRD FRONT MOVES WEST. SAT INTO SUN WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN
STAYS PRETTY STEADY STATE. WHILE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEY ARE JUST AS QUICK TO BUILD THE RIDGE BACK
OVERHEAD. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT PATTERN AND THE
FORECAST PATTERN IS THE LACK OF STORMINESS AS THE RIDGING LOOKS TO BE
DRY AND LESS WINDY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 179 180 181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS/ML JAN 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AKST WEDNESDAY JAN 22 2014

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-231800-

...MILD AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...

A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LION'S SHARE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD TOTAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VALUES REACHING 4000 TO 6000 FT INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO 8000 FT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

RESIDENTS ON THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED PONDING OF WATER
AND MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

THE LATEST AREA WEATHER FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED BY VISITING:

WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE

RMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AKST WEDNESDAY JAN 22 2014

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-231800-

...MILD AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...

A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LION'S SHARE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD TOTAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VALUES REACHING 4000 TO 6000 FT INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO 8000 FT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

RESIDENTS ON THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED PONDING OF WATER
AND MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

THE LATEST AREA WEATHER FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED BY VISITING:

WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE

RMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AKST WEDNESDAY JAN 22 2014

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-231800-

...MILD AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...

A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LION'S SHARE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD TOTAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VALUES REACHING 4000 TO 6000 FT INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO 8000 FT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

RESIDENTS ON THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED PONDING OF WATER
AND MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

THE LATEST AREA WEATHER FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED BY VISITING:

WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE

RMC