Gale Warning 844, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK52 PAFC 200004
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201015-
100 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS... A 965 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN TO 993 MB 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-201245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201245-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201245-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE ICE EDGE NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE ICE EDGE NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE ICE EDGE NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-201245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ185-201245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY N
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY N
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 AM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF ALASKA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 30N AND 50N LATITUDE). NORTH OF THE JET THERE
ARE A COUPLE CUT-OFF LOWS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ONE LOW IS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
LOW ARE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PAST 12 HOURS...SO IT WILL TAKE A BIT TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT.

THE SECOND CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ADAK ALONG THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHILE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. COLDER AIR
MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT AROUND 06Z SHOWS THE
GFS IS NOTABLE TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO WEAK WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE GULF. THE REST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...PERHAPS JUST
A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN LOCK STEP WITH THE
ALEUTIAN LOW...BUT DIFFERENCES QUICKLY SHOW UP WITH THE MANY LOWS
STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. IN PARTICULAR MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH A
STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ROTATING UP TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY. THIS WILL GREATLY
AFFECT THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND PRECIP FORECAST FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WHICH
WEAKEN THIS LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
SPREADING WESTWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOWS ARE TRACKING.
ELSEWHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LIMITING HOW MUCH ACTUALLY
REACHES THE GROUND. OTHER THAN THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE VARIOUS
WEAK LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LARGELY
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THUS...WILL BACK OFF POPS FOR THIS AREA. THE
REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL HAVE A
FEW UPS AND DOWNS AS LOWS PASS TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT OCCASIONAL
GUSTY GAP WINDS...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE GULF OF ALASKA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ASIA
WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY. BY SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...BUT AS IT
HEADS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC SATURDAY NIGHT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
COMMENCE. COLDER AIR WILL FIRST WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A
TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE BIG STORY NEXT WEEK IS THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ASIA
AND INTO THE BERING SEA...SUPPORTED BY A 200+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IN THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS POOR. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TRACK THE LOW
INTO THE HEART OF THE BERING SEA WHERE IT STALLS OUT. SOME PRIOR
SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS TRACK THE LOW MUCH
FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITH SUCH A
STRONG UPPER JET THE FURTHER EAST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO MAKE MORE
SENSE...BUT SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THE MORE PRUDENT
DECISION IS TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DEPICTS A
TRACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING. NO MATTER WHAT THE ULTIMATE
TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECT MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE
BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR MOVES INTO MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECT SNOW TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY.

THERE IS ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF ASIA. AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORT-WAVE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE BERING
SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH COULD INTERACT WITH ANY
REMAINING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
THERE IS STILL A LOW IN THE GULF AND WHERE IT MIGHT BE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. STILL...THIS IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 177 178.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...SEB