Gale Warning 782, NWS Anchorage, AK

731 
FZAK62 PAFC 200004
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201600-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 51N 173W WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 993 MB NEAR 54N
158W SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-201600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201600-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

056 
FZAK62 PAFC 201215
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210145-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 MB LOW 50N 171W WILL WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 51N
163W SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LATE SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ411-210145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 175E IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF 173W.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A FRONT
STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER
LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A LEADING FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATIONS OF
VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN FORECAST HOURS 24 AND 42
AS THE TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS MERGE. BY 84 HOURS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT THAT IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE LARGER SCALE OF WEATHER FEATURES AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY CONSISTS OF A LOW (USUALLY A
COMPLEX LOW...THAT IS MULTIPLE CENTERS) IN THE GULF WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THUS IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY INLAND WITH SURGES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE "SURGES"
WILL PUSH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE NEXT ONE DUE FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE THIRD ONE
PUSHES NORTH ON SUNDAY...THE TWO UPPER LOWS WILL BE MERGING. THIS
WILL SEND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL GULF LOW NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH THAT IS OVER WESTERN ALASKA
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GENERAL EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM (84 HR) FORECAST PERIOD. TWO WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...THE FIRST TONIGHT AND
THE SECOND ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT BOTH WILL BE WEAK
WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (AT MOST) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND SETS IN STARTING
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERY STRONG ZONAL JET COMING OUT OF EASTERN ASIA WILL KEEP A
SERIES OF FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE NORTH AS
SEASONABLY COOL AIR STARTS TO FILTER DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE BERING STRAIT. AS COOL AIR INCREASINGLY SPREADS ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA. THE WPC USED A BLEND THAT CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT 00Z ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE OTHER 50 PERCENT CONSISTING OF
THE 06Z GFS/PARALLEL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 127 130-132 138 177 178
 		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&