Gale Warning 781, NWS Anchorage, AK

301 
FZAK61 PAFC 200013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201545-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 55N 154W WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 974
MB NEAR 55N 157W SAT MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 968 MB LOW NEAR
54N 140W EARLY SAT MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB NEAR 59N 145W SUN
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-201545-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201545-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

171 
FZAK61 PAFC 201215
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210130-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 967 MB LOW NEAR 55N 140W WILL MOVE TO 59N 144W LATE TONIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING TO 974 MB AND THEN MOVE TO 57N 153W AT 995 MB
LATE SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ351-210130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N TO W IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW TO SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A FRONT
STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER
LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A LEADING FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATIONS OF
VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN FORECAST HOURS 24 AND 42
AS THE TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS MERGE. BY 84 HOURS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT THAT IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE LARGER SCALE OF WEATHER FEATURES AT THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY CONSISTS OF A LOW (USUALLY A
COMPLEX LOW...THAT IS MULTIPLE CENTERS) IN THE GULF WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THUS IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY INLAND WITH SURGES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE "SURGES"
WILL PUSH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE NEXT ONE DUE FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE THIRD ONE
PUSHES NORTH ON SUNDAY...THE TWO UPPER LOWS WILL BE MERGING. THIS
WILL SEND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL GULF LOW NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH THAT IS OVER WESTERN ALASKA
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GENERAL EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM (84 HR) FORECAST PERIOD. TWO WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...THE FIRST TONIGHT AND
THE SECOND ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT BOTH WILL BE WEAK
WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW (AT MOST) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND SETS IN STARTING
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERY STRONG ZONAL JET COMING OUT OF EASTERN ASIA WILL KEEP A
SERIES OF FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE NORTH AS
SEASONABLY COOL AIR STARTS TO FILTER DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE BERING STRAIT. AS COOL AIR INCREASINGLY SPREADS ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA. THE WPC USED A BLEND THAT CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT 00Z ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE OTHER 50 PERCENT CONSISTING OF
THE 06Z GFS/PARALLEL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 127 130-132 138 177 178
 		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&