Gale Warning 814, NWS Anchorage, AK

808 
FZAK52 PAFC 081225
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090100-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 MB LOW 40 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL CONTINUE WEST TO 50 NM
NW OF DUTCH HARBOR BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. A GULF LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO 959 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK THIS
EVENING...THE LOW WILL THEN WILL MOVE TO COLD BAY AT 965 MB TUE
AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 972 MB
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090100-
BRISTOL BAY-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-090100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090100-
UNALASKA BAY-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-090100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-090100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
325 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PLAYER ALOFT THIS MORNING IS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THERE ARE
SEVERAL CENTERS WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE AND SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE JET STREAM IS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A SOLID 170+ KT CORE COMING OFF OF
EAST ASIA FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE LOW AND TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL BUT FOR THE MOST PART IS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE BERING SEA
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA.

THIS FAMILY OF SURFACE SYSTEMS ARE FEEDING OFF HEAT AND MOISTURE
IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND STRENGTHENING AS THEY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND. THE CURRENT INCARNATION
IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY OCCLUDED WITH
A SOLID AREA OF MAX GALES/MIN STORM FORCE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONT...DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH
ARE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING OUT THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING GULF
SYSTEM. CONSENSUS IS THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WHICH MATCHES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE ECMWF HAS COME IN
LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS ON A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE GFS
IS STILL A TICK FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT STILL PRETTY
CLOSE. THE EAST DOMAIN PREFERRED THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM WHILE
THE WEST DOMAIN PREFERRED A NAM/GEM REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT IS PUSHING OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST WITH SOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS HUNG UP ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SOME
SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A STORM FORCE FRONT NORTHWARD
IN THE GULF BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND WITH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THE FRONT WILL REINFORCE WARMER AIR WITH
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE THE COOK INLET REGION REMAINS
DOWNSLOPED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
ANCHORAGE THROUGH PALMER/WASILLA TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD LASTING PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT IN TO
MONDAY A CARBON COPY OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM TRACK TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND AND SEND ANOTHER FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAINLAND WITH
VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA WHICH IS TRANSITIONING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IT WILL
BRING MORE OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA WHICH
WILL CAUSE WARMER AIR TO OVERRUN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY KEEPING THE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW. THE MAIN LOW WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SLOWLY TRACK WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE LOW WILL
THEN STALL THERE CONTINUING TO BRING WARM AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH.
OUT WEST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS DOWN COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PERSISTENT CLOSED HIGH OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL KEEP FEEDING IN COLDER ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
BERING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE BERING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MID WEEK...RESULTING
IN DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY
AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST...MULTIPLE WAVES WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TRACK THROUGH
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS SOLUTIONS...CONTINUING THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
AS THEY TRACK INTO THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA. MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ENTERING THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES...IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CURRENT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 150
 GALES 125 129 139 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
103 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

AKZ101-111-080700-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
103 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CAUSING VERY SLICK ROADS TODAY...

AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ON FROZEN SURFACES ARE
CAUSING THE THE ROADS TO BECOME MORE SLICK AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS
DUE TO THESE SLICK ROADWAYS.