Gale Warning 770, NWS Anchorage, AK

423 
FZAK61 PAFC 081229
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090230-
329 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 964 MB LOW NEAR 56N 162W MOVES TO 54N 168W AND DISSIPATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A 961 MB LOW NEAR 53N 148W MOVES TO 56N 156W AT 959 MB THIS
EVENING. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 56N 161W AT 965 MB TUE AFTERNOON
AND BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO 972 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
329 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
329 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

084 
FZAK61 PAFC 090007
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091515-
307 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 960 MB LOW NEAR 56N 155W WILL MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 970 MB 
TUE EVENING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
307 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
307 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN PLAYER ALOFT THIS MORNING IS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THERE ARE
SEVERAL CENTERS WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE AND SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE JET STREAM IS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A SOLID 170+ KT CORE COMING OFF OF
EAST ASIA FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE LOW AND TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL BUT FOR THE MOST PART IS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE BERING SEA
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA.

THIS FAMILY OF SURFACE SYSTEMS ARE FEEDING OFF HEAT AND MOISTURE
IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND STRENGTHENING AS THEY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND. THE CURRENT INCARNATION
IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY OCCLUDED WITH
A SOLID AREA OF MAX GALES/MIN STORM FORCE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONT...DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH
ARE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING OUT THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING GULF
SYSTEM. CONSENSUS IS THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WHICH MATCHES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE ECMWF HAS COME IN
LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS ON A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE GFS
IS STILL A TICK FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT STILL PRETTY
CLOSE. THE EAST DOMAIN PREFERRED THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM WHILE
THE WEST DOMAIN PREFERRED A NAM/GEM REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT IS PUSHING OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST WITH SOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS HUNG UP ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SOME
SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A STORM FORCE FRONT NORTHWARD
IN THE GULF BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND WITH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THE FRONT WILL REINFORCE WARMER AIR WITH
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE THE COOK INLET REGION REMAINS
DOWNSLOPED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
ANCHORAGE THROUGH PALMER/WASILLA TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD LASTING PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT IN TO
MONDAY A CARBON COPY OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM TRACK TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND AND SEND ANOTHER FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAINLAND WITH
VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA WHICH IS TRANSITIONING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IT WILL
BRING MORE OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA WHICH
WILL CAUSE WARMER AIR TO OVERRUN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY KEEPING THE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW. THE MAIN LOW WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SLOWLY TRACK WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE LOW WILL
THEN STALL THERE CONTINUING TO BRING WARM AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH.
OUT WEST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS DOWN COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PERSISTENT CLOSED HIGH OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL KEEP FEEDING IN COLDER ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
BERING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE BERING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MID WEEK...RESULTING
IN DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY
AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST...MULTIPLE WAVES WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TRACK THROUGH
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS SOLUTIONS...CONTINUING THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
AS THEY TRACK INTO THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA. MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ENTERING THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES...IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CURRENT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 150
 GALES 125 129 139 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
103 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

AKZ101-111-080700-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
103 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CAUSING VERY SLICK ROADS TODAY...

AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ON FROZEN SURFACES ARE
CAUSING THE THE ROADS TO BECOME MORE SLICK AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS
DUE TO THESE SLICK ROADWAYS.