Gale Warning 771, NWS Anchorage, AK

220 
FZAK62 PAFC 090006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091500-
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 MB LOW NEAR 56N 155W WILL MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 970 MB TUE
EVENING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 980 MB
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
306 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

194 
FZAK62 PAFC 091233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100200-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 56N 157W WILL MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 970
MB THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN
LATE WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-100200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

213 
FZAK62 PAFC 100003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101515-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-101515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-101515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-101515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-101515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN BENDS SHARPLY WESTWARD
OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS
LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE BIG WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS A STRONG LOW THAT IS CROSSING FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KODIAK AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVERALL HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THE TWO
LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE NAM IS HANDLING THE DETAILS ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST WELL. THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING THE STRONG EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...

RAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS TAPERS OFF SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE WEST. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH
THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE OR
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND TO THE GULF WATERS AND GULF
COAST...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE WHICH
MOVED THROUGH TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SNOW
EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF GLENNALLEN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CLEARED THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS
THE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE PUSHES WESTWARD
INTO THE BERING...LEAVING PRIMARILY JUST A FEW SHOWERS THAT WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEAR THE AKPEN MOVES OFF TO
THE WEST AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT LOW/UPPER WAVE WILL
THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY CONFINED TO
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SNOW
MIXING AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW. THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH
MONDAY AS A LOW TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE AKPEN TO NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SIBERIA REGION
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NORTH PACIFIC GALE FORCE LOW
APPROACH BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS BEFORE SPREADING OVER INTO THE BERING SEA.

THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL SEE THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SYSTEMS.

THE GULF WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH A NORTH PACIFIC
STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING INTO THE LOWER EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY BRINGING
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH
SOME MOISTURE MAKING IT INLAND BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY
SATURDAY. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC STORM FORCE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COASTLINE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WARMER AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 160 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 181.
         FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD