Gale Warning 805, NWS Anchorage, AK

297 
FZAK51 PAFC 051433 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK
INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060415-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK MOVES TO 115 NM EAST OF
SAND POINT AT 990 MB THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST SAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-060415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN . 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-060415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-060415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY MORNING FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-060415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-060415-
PORT VALDEZ-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-060415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-060415-
VALDEZ ARM-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-060415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-060415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-060415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-060415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-060415-
CHINIAK BAY-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-060415-
MARMOT BAY-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-060415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 15 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-060415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-060415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
533 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

309 
FZAK51 PAFC 060042
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061315-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A 978 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK SAT EVENING
WILL MOVE TO 120 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY SUN MORNING AND DEEPEN TO
967 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 80 NM NORTH OF PORT MOLLER SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-061315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO WIND 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061315-
PORT VALDEZ-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061315-
VALDEZ ARM-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061315-
CHINIAK BAY-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061315-
MARMOT BAY-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
342 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

267 
FZAK51 PAFC 061229
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070115-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A 970 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK SUN AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO
960 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. A
960 MB NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-070115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-070115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-070115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-070115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-070115-
PORT VALDEZ-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-070115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-070115-
VALDEZ ARM-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-070115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-070115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-070115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-070115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-070115-
CHINIAK BAY-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-070115-
MARMOT BAY-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-070115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-070115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-070115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-070115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
329 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS A DEVELOPING
LOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE PUSHING INTO
THE EASTERN CORNER OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN BUT NOT SO MUCH IN AGREEMENT ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.
THERE IS FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ALASKA PENINSULA TROUGH. MOSTLY THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF
"SURGES" ALONG THE GULF/KODIAK FRONT. PREFER THE HI- RES MODELS (NAM
AND REGIONAL GEM) FOR THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH A LOW (ORIGINALLY THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN) SLIDING SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY. PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF)
FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING THIS EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RADAR
IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW CONFINED NOW TO MAINLY THE SKWENTNA AREA AND ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE AK RANGE. SOME RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO PORTAGE VALLEY BUT EVEN THOSE
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY MOST PLACES WILL
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE PUSHES UP FROM THE PANHANDLE BRIEFLY. THE BIGGEST EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS KODIAK WHERE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT THE GULF COAST RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A TON OF THERMAL ADVECTION WITH IT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOVER NEAR WHERE THEY ARE NOW MAKING FOR SNOW FOR INLAND AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN CONTINUING AT MANY COASTAL LOCALES.
THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INLAND VERY FAR
WITH ALMOST NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAKES ANOTHER PUSH TOWARDS THE ANCHORAGE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM MOIST AIR EMBEDDED IN VARIOUS WEAK WAVES
HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT GOING INTO SUNDAY. SO WINDS THROUGH THE
TYPICAL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND
KENAI MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. IN ADDITION RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSH ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. CROSS
BARRIER FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE A SMALL DOWNSLOPE
HOLE OVER NEAR KING SALMON LEADING TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE ALASKA RANGE AND WESTERN CAPES WILL SEE A STEADY DOSE OF
RAIN AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED INSULATION PREVENTING THE GROUND FROM COOLING OFF AS
MUCH. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
(SOME PLACES NEAR 0 DEGREES IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY) WILL BE
SEEN AS SKIES CLEAR A LITTLE BIT AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NIKOLSKI
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE LOW PUSHES SOUTH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE GOTTEN INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THEY ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT SKIRTS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ALSO THE LOW WILL HAVE BECOME
COLD CORE PRIOR TO ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF SHEMYA WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN INSTEAD OF A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR SHEMYA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE STORM FORCE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TRANSITIONING INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM BY SUNDAY OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER BERING
SEA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK LOCATED OVER SIBERIA
WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
BY MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS RANGING FROM ZERO TO MINUS FIVE BELOW OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM FORCE LOW. THE
GFS/ECMWF WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WITH THE NAM BEING
THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE EXTENDING INTO THE
MATSU VALLEY WESTWARD THROUGH THE YUKON DELTA BY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND  THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY THIS WEEKEND. ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL TURN INTO
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS IT TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COLDER LAYER
AT THE SURFACE. THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES AS THEY TRACK THROUGH GULF.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178. GALE 130 131 138 172 174 175 176 177 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/SAM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD