Gale Warning 804, NWS Anchorage, AK

288 
FZAK51 PAFC 051225
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060130-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK MOVES TO 115 NM EAST OF
SAND POINT AT 990 MB THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST SAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-060130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN .
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-060130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-060130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY MORNING FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-060130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-060130-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-060130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-060130-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-060130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-060130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-060130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-060130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-060130-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-060130-
MARMOT BAY-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-060130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-060130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-060130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGHINESS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE PERSISTS
OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH A VERY NARROW BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA EXTENDING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-LATITUDES TO NEAR 40N 150W.
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG BUT NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GULF NORTH AND WEST TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS MOVING
TOWARD THE KODIAK ISLAND AND KENAI PENINSULA...PRODUCING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AROUND KODIAK CITY. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IS FALLING IN THE HOMER AREA...AND SNOW IS FALLING OVER
COOK INLET NORTH INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE DEPICTS A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM SOUNDING
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...WITH STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ABOVE THE STABLE WARM LAYER. TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THE 12 UTC SOUNDING DEPICTS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 2100 FEET...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 1000 FEET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INCLUDING THE COOK INLET AND KODIAK ISLAND
AREAS. THE FIRST FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION
BY THIS EVENING. WARM MARITIME AIR WILL MOVE INLAND AND BRING
TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY WHERE
ANY KIND OF MIXING CAN MIX OUT THE VERY SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER
INVERSION. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HOMER ALONG THE WESTERN CHUGACH
RANGE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST FROM THE GULF TONIGHT AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH IT...AS WELL AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND.

A POWERFUL 952 MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NEAR JAPAN TO 350
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM...YIELDING
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING FROM KODIAK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WET SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE REGIME...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINING OVER
COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND INLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE AND HELP TO PUSH THE RAIN TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH
STRONGER SOUTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING FOR A MILD DAY
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CAN EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DELTA WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WILL HAVE RAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...LIMITED TO VALLEYS WITH TRAPPED COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL TRACK EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING...KEEPING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES A MORE COMPLEX
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE WITH REGARDS
TO THE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF COAST.
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE MULTIPLE VORTICIES THAT FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. CURRENT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT HAS LED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 138 139 177
         STORMS 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP