Gale Warning 767, NWS Anchorage, AK

145 
FZAK62 PAFC 051239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060245-
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A COMPLEX 976 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N 163W MOVES TO 49N 156W AT
983 MB TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS TO 969 MB WHILE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A 957 MB LOW NEAR 48N 166E
MOVES TO 50N 179E TONIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TO 972 MB NEAR 48N 166W
SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-060245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-060245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-060245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-060245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

384 
FZAK62 PAFC 060041
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061430-
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 MB LOW AT 49N 170E WILL MOVE TO 49N 172W SAT AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN TO 967 MB THEN TO 52N 159W SUN MORNING. A 970 MB LOW AT 56N
151W SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 57N 161W SUN AFTERNOON AT 967 MB.

$$

PKZ411-061430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-061430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-061430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-061430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

268 
FZAK62 PAFC 061238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070215-
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW AT 49N 179E WILL MOVE TO 49N 154W AND DISSIPATE SUN
MORNING. A 962 MB LOW AT 55N 151W SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 55N
165W LATE SUN NIGHT AT 959 MB.

$$

PKZ411-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGHINESS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE PERSISTS
OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH A VERY NARROW BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA EXTENDING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-LATITUDES TO NEAR 40N 150W.
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG BUT NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GULF NORTH AND WEST TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS MOVING
TOWARD THE KODIAK ISLAND AND KENAI PENINSULA...PRODUCING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AROUND KODIAK CITY. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IS FALLING IN THE HOMER AREA...AND SNOW IS FALLING OVER
COOK INLET NORTH INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THE 12 UTC
SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE DEPICTS A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM SOUNDING
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...WITH STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ABOVE THE STABLE WARM LAYER. TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THE 12 UTC SOUNDING DEPICTS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 2100 FEET...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 1000 FEET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INCLUDING THE COOK INLET AND KODIAK ISLAND
AREAS. THE FIRST FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION
BY THIS EVENING. WARM MARITIME AIR WILL MOVE INLAND AND BRING
TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY WHERE
ANY KIND OF MIXING CAN MIX OUT THE VERY SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER
INVERSION. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HOMER ALONG THE WESTERN CHUGACH
RANGE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST FROM THE GULF TONIGHT AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH IT...AS WELL AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND.

A POWERFUL 952 MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NEAR JAPAN TO 350
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM...YIELDING
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING FROM KODIAK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WET SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE REGIME...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINING OVER
COOK INLET AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND INLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE AND HELP TO PUSH THE RAIN TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH
STRONGER SOUTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING FOR A MILD DAY
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CAN EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DELTA WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WILL HAVE RAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...LIMITED TO VALLEYS WITH TRAPPED COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL TRACK EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING...KEEPING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES A MORE COMPLEX
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE WITH REGARDS
TO THE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF COAST.
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE MULTIPLE VORTICIES THAT FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. CURRENT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT HAS LED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 138 139 177
         STORMS 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP