Gale Warning 774, NWS Anchorage, AK

703 
FZAK61 PAFC 130013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-131430-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 996 MB LOW AT 59N 148W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 981 MB LOW AT
52N 149W LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 56N 147W LATE SAT NIGHT AT 985
MB THEN TO 59N 154W SUN AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 974 MB.

$$

PKZ351-131430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 TO 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-131430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT... N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

016 
FZAK61 PAFC 131247
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140145-
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 51N 149W WILL MOVE TO 58N 154W BY SUN AFTERNOON
AT 974 MB...BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 971 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-140145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-140145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO
17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

964 
FZAK61 PAFC 140008
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
308 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141415-
308 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A COMPLEX 985 MB LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 53N 148W MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND NEAR 57N 153W BY
SUN AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 980 MB. A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

$$

PKZ351-141415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
308 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-141415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
308 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

496 
FZAK61 PAFC 141242
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150200-
342 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 56N 150W WILL MOVE TO 58N 152W AT 977 MB THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A 983 MB NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL MOVE TO 56N 140W MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-150200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
342 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ352-150200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
342 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
443 PM AKST THU DEC 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH
A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A FAIRLY STRONG EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CENTERED NEAR 45N 170W
ANOTHER STRONG LOW IS NORTHEAST OF JAPAN AND MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE LAST TWO LOWS MENTIONED ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AROUND 3 PM AKST SAT
AFTERNOON THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE SPEED/LOCATION OF VARIOUS
SURFACE LOWS. BETWEEN SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON EACH MODEL
SEEMS TO BE HEADED IN A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTION WITH NO
CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY ON THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY)...FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG STORY FOR PARTS OF THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE ACTUALLY ENJOYING A
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS FOG COULD ACTUALLY HOLD ON ITS PART OF THE
BOWL UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. ONE LOW ALONG THE PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN AS ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA
TOWARDS THE GULF. THEY WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
OPEN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PART OF THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE ARE JUST EXPECTING FLURRIES
INTO THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS. A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD HELP TO WRING OUT THE MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE EAST. A MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL
IRONING OUT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EXACT LOW LOCATION AT THE
SURFACE BUT THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BRING A HEALTHY SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR TO THE GULF COAST. THE FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY WILL BE A
BIT MORE TRICKY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL MISS THIS AREA DUE TO SOME MODERATE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW.
HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES MOVE FARTHER TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WOULD BE MUCH WEAKER. TWO OTHER PIECES
TO THE FORECAST ARE A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND EXACTLY WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. FOR NOW IT DOES LOOK TO BE A BIG PRECIPITATION
MAKER FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS BUT STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA. BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO ONSHORE FLOW BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL PATCHY FOG THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COASTLINE THEY WILL HAVE ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM BAY
AND BRISTOL BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH A
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED WITH A
GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY THE WEATHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE UNALASKA AREA WITH A SECONDARY GALE FORCE LOW
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS AND RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BY SATURDAY RESULTING
IN WESTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING A GALE FORCE LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
UNALASKA BRINGING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN GOING INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE NORTHEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH THE GALE FORCE LOW POSITIONED WEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
KAMCHATKA...ACROSS THE AKPEN AND PACIFIC TO CALIFORNIA. THE
PATTERN THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND
RIDGES WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKPEN THAT MIGRATES TO THE GULF ON THU.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF MON THROUGH WED...AND A TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. A
STRONG FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU. THE
FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON A WPC SOLUTION...WITH WIND FIELD
ENHANCED BY A BLEND TO THE 12Z EC.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE BERING...ALEUTIANS...AND
SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL AFFECT
THE GULF COAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACTIVITY UNTIL WARM AIR SCOURS OUT COLD POCKETS
DURING THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/SAM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DS