Gale Warning 772, NWS Anchorage, AK

247 
FZAK62 PAFC 121244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130200-
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING TODAY...THEN
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON SAT. A 991 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR
46N 179E SAT MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB AS IT MOVES TO 52N
166W BY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.  SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

722 
FZAK62 PAFC 130004
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131530-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SAT AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. A
986 MB LOW AT 48N 177W LATE SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 56N 165W SUN
AFTERNOON WHILE DEEPENING TO 966 MB.

$$

PKZ411-131530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 56 N...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT
BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 56 N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING
SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF 174W...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 PM AKST FRI DEC 12 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

900 
FZAK62 PAFC 131248
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140215-
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TODAY AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW AT 46N 178E WILL MOVE TO 55N 166W BY SUN
MORNING WHILE DEEPENING TO 968 MB...THEN TRACK TO 56N 159W AT 973
MB BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 TO 35 KT N OF 56N.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N
IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.  RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
348 AM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

179 
FZAK62 PAFC 140011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141445-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 MB LOW AT 51N 174W SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 56N 166W
WHILE DEEPENING TO 964 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK TO 58N 159W
MON AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976 MB. ANOTHER 977 MB
LOW AT 58N 180 SAT AFTERNOON MOVES TO 56N 174E MON WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PRESSURE.

$$

PKZ411-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT NE 20 TO 30 KT N OF 56N.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT W 25 TO 35 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 10
TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN
BETWEEN OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND
CLEARING SKIES ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND HAVE
LED TO FOGGY CONDITIONS SETTING UP OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENING
AND DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
HAS KEPT GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM A
COMMON SOLUTION. THE FIRST DIFFERENCE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF
SATURDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY...WHERE THE SLOWER 00Z NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER BY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LONGER. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE WORTH MENTIONING WOULD BE THE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER (~3HRS) THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. WITH OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOIST CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES HAVE LED TO FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE IS ALSO AN
OVERALL LACK OF A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO MAJOR FEATURES
THAT WOULD CAUSE STRONG WINDS TO MIX OUT THE FOG.
HOWEVER...THROUGHOUT THE DAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AREA AND MIX OUT SOME OF
THE FOG. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST
TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BRINGING BACK
PRECIPITATION TO THOSE AREAS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING LOW OVER CHIGNIK WILL BRING
WINTRY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE KING SALMON
AREA EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARDS EGEGIK DURING THE EVENING. BY
THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH THE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM AND THE GEM-REG BEING THE PREFERRED MODELS
OF CHOICE. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE SOME GAP WINDS WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE BERING WITH THE COLD AIR FILTERING
IN WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER (OR MULTIPLE CENTERS) WHICH WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND WIND REGIME. AS IT
STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS A POTENT BARRIER JET WILL SITUATE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A STORM FORCE BARRIER JET...IT
WAS DECIDED TO TREND UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAX
GALES (45 KNOT WINDS) FOR THE TIME BEING AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME AVAILABLE TO IRON OUT DETAILS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND
IMMEDIATE INLAND AREAS...BUT SHOWERS SPREADING INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
POTENTIALLY CREATE A "WARM NOSE" WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE "WET BULBS" AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS IS ONLY SPECULATIVE AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT (TRIPLE POINT LOW) AND PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEAS ON SUNDAY. BY THIS POINT...A VERY BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE BERING SEA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGH BUT IT IS JUST TOO FAR OUT TO EVEN ATTEMPT TO GUESS
WHERE THESE CENTERS MIGHT DEVELOP/TRACK. REGARDLESS...AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

ONE LAST THING OF NOTE...THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC APPEARS
TO FINALLY START SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF A
MUCH DESIRED PATTERN CHANGE. STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...101 111.
MARINE...GALE...177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MMC