Gale Warning 696, NWS Anchorage, AK

177 
FZAK51 PAFC 031252
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040200-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
AK EARLY TUE MORNING. A 995 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII 
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AK THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. THESE LOWS
THEN WEAKEN AND MERGE INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF THAT PERSISTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-040200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E WIND 30 KT ALONG THE COAST. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. ALONG THE COAST...E WIND 25 KT
BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-040200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-040200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-040200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-040200-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-040200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-040200-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-040200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-040200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-040200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-040200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-040200-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-040200-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-040200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-040200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-040200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-040200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST SUN NOV 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BRISTOL
BAY...THE AK PEN...AND SOUTHWEST AK THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW IS OVER BRISTOL BAY.

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
GULF LOW...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY LOW...LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST AK WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY MON NIGHT
THE SW AK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE GULF OF AK...WITH EMBEDDED
LOWS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND NEAR SOUTHEAST AK. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER KAMCHATKA WILL BECOME OF MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE AS
IT DRIFTS TO THE CENTRAL BERING...AND A TROUGH OVER ASIA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AND DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WEST OF
KAMCHATKA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND COOK INLET BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AKPEN THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO
THE GULF OF AK BY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE GULF AND HEAD INTO SOUTHEAST AK MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE MORNING.

IN THE WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AK WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE SAME FLOW OVER THE BERING
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FORMING FROM THE TROUGH OVER ASIA WILL
HAVE A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF KAMCHATKA MON MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH FEATURES MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THEN ROTATING WESTWARD AS THEY REACH SOUTHCENTRAL.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF POISED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...TODAYS LOW IS WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPING TO STEER IT WESTWARD IS MUCH WEAKER.
THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH LESS PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. ALSO...THE AIR MASS HAS WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY SO PRECIP IN THE HOMER AREA (NEAR
SEA LEVEL) WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. OTHER THAN THIS FEATURES A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A STEADY SUPPLY OF SHOWERS FOR THE GULF COAST
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
DRY AS A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS KEEPS ANY
PRECIP FALLING ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MONDAY AS THE MAIN LOW CURRENTLY
OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND DISSIPATES.
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRYING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ARRIVAL OF A DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEADING TO WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN
WILL AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...MAINLY FROM PILOT POINT
SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE FROM ILIAMNA NORTHWARD
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY
TODAY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE DELTA SHOULD REMAIN SNOW
FREE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND GENERALLY 5
TO 10 MPH EXCEPT UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. THE
AREA STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BRINGING SOME
SLIGHTLY INCREASED FLOW THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. BEGINNING
TONIGHT A WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTABILITY RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ADAK THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
USUALLY THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR WINDS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...HOWEVER WITH A WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WINDS OFF THE SURFACE ARE NOT THAT MUCH
HIGHER THAN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND COLD ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN DRIVER OF
ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE GAP RELATED FORCING UNDER STRONG WIND
CRITERIA. THE MEAT OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL COME OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT SO THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD RESIDE IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN AND FOG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUE-SAT)...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY PUSHING INLAND AS VARIOUS UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

FOR THE EXTENDED TERM...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEAK AS
THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT TYPHOON NURI INTERACT WITH A 200 KNOT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A VERY DEEP LOW ENTERING
THE WESTERN BERING LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF
THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL DEPICTING A LOW RANGING FROM 924-938 MB MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
REMAINS VERY LOW AS MANY DETAILS MAY CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS POORLY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...CB