Gale Warning 669, NWS Anchorage, AK

834 
FZAK62 PAFC 040000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUE MORNING THEN TO THE
EASTERN BERING TUE NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 56N 175W
LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO 50N 162W WED AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO
979 MB.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT S OF
56N IN THE AFTERNOON.. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT W
OF 176W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 176W. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT.

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 166W. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

601 
FZAK62 PAFC 041238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050230-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON
WED. A 986 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 50N 165W WED MORNING THEN MOVE
TO 51N 159W WED NIGHT AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ411-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ412-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. STRONGEST W OF 176W. SEAS 6 TO 11
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 20 KT W OF 178W IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. W OF 175W...WEST WIND 15 KT. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT.

$$

PKZ414-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

410 
FZAK62 PAFC 050030
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051400-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT AND STALL...THEN
DISSIPATE THU. A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT 54N
170W LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N 162W WED AFTERNOON AT
978 MB THEN TO 56N 156W THU AFTERNOON AT 972 MB.

$$

PKZ411-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 34 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.

$$

PKZ412-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT W OF
177W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 10 TO 20 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT EXCEPT NW 10 TO 20 KT W OF 177W
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

PKZ413-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT SE 20 TO 35 KT E OF 175W.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 TO 44 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ414-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

163 
FZAK62 PAFC 051241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060215-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THEN DISSIPATE THU. A 980 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT
50N 161W THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 51N 157W TONIGHT AT 974 MB
THEN TO 56N 153W THU NIGHT AT 983 MB. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 50N 165E AT 945 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST S OF 56N. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 37 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT.

$$

PKZ412-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF 178W. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

PKZ413-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT EXCEPT E 15 TO 25 KT E OF 174W. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. STRONGEST W OF 176W. SEAS 10 TO 16
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 29 TO 41 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ414-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST ALASKA PENINSULA. A
WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS DRAPED ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA...CREATING A BIT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE STATE. ANOTHER
HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA
BETWEEN THIS SECOND HIGH AND THE PENINSULA LOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF
A COUPLE OF LOWS AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS IS FAIRLY NORMAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DOES NOT CREATE ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THE
GEM REGIONAL MODELS WAS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM (THE NAM WAS
FAIRLY GOOD AS WELL) AND THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY LEANED ON AFTER
ABOUT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN KENAI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN KENAI EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING MIXING WITH
SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
VALDEZ AREA THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES TOMORROW
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMING TREND. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN
KENAI WILL SEE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WHICH WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINES EXTENDING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY A WEAK LOW WILL FORM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
FOR GULF COASTLINES BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WINDING DOWN AS THE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN MOST PART OF BRISTOL BAY. AS A RESULT, SNOW HAS PERSISTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OBSERVED EAST OF DILLINGHAM WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME HAS SET UP OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTABILITY
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ADAK THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LESS MIXING FROM
ALOFT DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD REMAIN UNDER STRONG WIND
CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THE WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE ENHANCED BY GAP RELATED FORCING ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS COMING IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST OPENS UP WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAKENING LOW
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A TRIPLE POINT
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA.
THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SUBTROPICS. THIS WILL BRING A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL THEN TRACK NEAR
KODIAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND
IMMEDIATE INLAND AREAS. HOW FAR THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES INLAND
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY POWERFUL SYSTEM EXISTS STARTING LATE
THURSDAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI
(CURRENTLY LOCATED 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN) PHASES WITH A
STRONG JET COUPLING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A 100+ KT JET AT
500 MB AND A 200+ KT JET AT 200 MB WILL PLAY A HUGE FACTOR IN THE
OVERALL RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE REMNANTS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE OVERALL AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED JET
COUPLING WHICH LEADS TO VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL HEIGHTS...PRESSURE FIELDS AND DERIVED WIND
FIELDS ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH THE LOW DEEPENING
POTENTIALLY BELOW 930 MB. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE
HISTORICALLY STRUGGLED A BIT WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS TRANSITIONING
INTO EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS...WHICH COULD LEADS TO A CHANGE IN
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CLUSTERING
IN CONCERNING THAT THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM COULD PAN OUT. SHOULD IT
PAN OUT...A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WIND
EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 127 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&