Gale Warning 668, NWS Anchorage, AK

618 
FZAK62 PAFC 031242
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 56N 155W MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK AND WEAKENS
THROUGH TUE MORNING. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING REACHES THE
EASTERN BERING TUE AND DISSIPATES. A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN BERING STALLS TUE NIGHT NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A TRIPLE
POINT LOW DEVELOPS TUE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTENSIFIES TO
986 MB NEAR 53N 171W TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF 176E...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF 176E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 20 KT S OF 56N IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT W
OF 176W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 176W. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 166W. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

834 
FZAK62 PAFC 040000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUE MORNING THEN TO THE
EASTERN BERING TUE NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 56N 175W
LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO 50N 162W WED AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO
979 MB.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT S OF
56N IN THE AFTERNOON.. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT W
OF 176W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 176W. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT.

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 166W. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

601 
FZAK62 PAFC 041238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050230-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON
WED. A 986 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 50N 165W WED MORNING THEN MOVE
TO 51N 159W WED NIGHT AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ411-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ412-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. STRONGEST W OF 176W. SEAS 6 TO 11
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 20 KT W OF 178W IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. W OF 175W...WEST WIND 15 KT. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT.

$$

PKZ414-050230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

410 
FZAK62 PAFC 050030
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051400-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT AND STALL...THEN
DISSIPATE THU. A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT 54N
170W LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N 162W WED AFTERNOON AT
978 MB THEN TO 56N 156W THU AFTERNOON AT 972 MB.

$$

PKZ411-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 34 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.

$$

PKZ412-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT W OF
177W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 10 TO 20 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT EXCEPT NW 10 TO 20 KT W OF 177W
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

PKZ413-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT SE 20 TO 35 KT E OF 175W.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 TO 44 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ414-051400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

163 
FZAK62 PAFC 051241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060215-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THEN DISSIPATE THU. A 980 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT
50N 161W THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 51N 157W TONIGHT AT 974 MB
THEN TO 56N 153W THU NIGHT AT 983 MB. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 50N 165E AT 945 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST S OF 56N. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 37 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT.

$$

PKZ412-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF 178W. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

PKZ413-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT EXCEPT E 15 TO 25 KT E OF 174W. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT E OF 175W. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. STRONGEST W OF 176W. SEAS 10 TO 16
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 29 TO 41 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ414-060215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST SUN NOV 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BRISTOL
BAY...THE AK PEN...AND SOUTHWEST AK THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW IS OVER BRISTOL BAY.

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
GULF LOW...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY LOW...LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST AK WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY MON NIGHT
THE SW AK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE GULF OF AK...WITH EMBEDDED
LOWS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND NEAR SOUTHEAST AK. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER KAMCHATKA WILL BECOME OF MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE AS
IT DRIFTS TO THE CENTRAL BERING...AND A TROUGH OVER ASIA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AND DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WEST OF
KAMCHATKA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND COOK INLET BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AKPEN THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO
THE GULF OF AK BY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE GULF AND HEAD INTO SOUTHEAST AK MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE MORNING.

IN THE WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AK WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE SAME FLOW OVER THE BERING
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FORMING FROM THE TROUGH OVER ASIA WILL
HAVE A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF KAMCHATKA MON MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH FEATURES MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THEN ROTATING WESTWARD AS THEY REACH SOUTHCENTRAL.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF POISED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...TODAYS LOW IS WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPING TO STEER IT WESTWARD IS MUCH WEAKER.
THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH LESS PRECIP TO FALL OVER THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. ALSO...THE AIR MASS HAS WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY SO PRECIP IN THE HOMER AREA (NEAR
SEA LEVEL) WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. OTHER THAN THIS FEATURES A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A STEADY SUPPLY OF SHOWERS FOR THE GULF COAST
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
DRY AS A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS KEEPS ANY
PRECIP FALLING ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MONDAY AS THE MAIN LOW CURRENTLY
OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND DISSIPATES.
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRYING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ARRIVAL OF A DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEADING TO WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN
WILL AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...MAINLY FROM PILOT POINT
SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE FROM ILIAMNA NORTHWARD
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY
TODAY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE DELTA SHOULD REMAIN SNOW
FREE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND GENERALLY 5
TO 10 MPH EXCEPT UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. THE
AREA STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BRINGING SOME
SLIGHTLY INCREASED FLOW THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. BEGINNING
TONIGHT A WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTABILITY RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ADAK THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
USUALLY THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR WINDS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...HOWEVER WITH A WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WINDS OFF THE SURFACE ARE NOT THAT MUCH
HIGHER THAN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND COLD ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN DRIVER OF
ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE GAP RELATED FORCING UNDER STRONG WIND
CRITERIA. THE MEAT OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL COME OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT SO THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD RESIDE IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN AND FOG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUE-SAT)...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY PUSHING INLAND AS VARIOUS UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

FOR THE EXTENDED TERM...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEAK AS
THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT TYPHOON NURI INTERACT WITH A 200 KNOT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A VERY DEEP LOW ENTERING
THE WESTERN BERING LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF
THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL DEPICTING A LOW RANGING FROM 924-938 MB MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
REMAINS VERY LOW AS MANY DETAILS MAY CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS POORLY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...CB