Gale Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

253 
FZAK61 PAFC 020007
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW OVER UPPER COOK INLET WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF FRI.

$$

PKZ351-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.   

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A GENERALLY ZONAL JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS UNDERWAY...WITH A MATURE
VERTICALLY-STACKED STORM NOW READILY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHES FROM BRISTOL BAY BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND RAIN HAVE SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW RAPIDLY FILLING IN FURTHER
WEST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. THIS IS A COMPACT AND TIGHTLY-WOUND
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP AND THE STRONGEST WINDS STAYING CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER THAN SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
NO MODELS SHOWING OVERTLY UNREALISTIC EVOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION TAKES
A STRONG LOW UP THE WESTERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT BEFORE CONTINUING
UP COOK INLET AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO STRADDLE THE ALEUTIAN RANGE ON A NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SPLIT CIRCULATION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN CIRCULATION (IN
SHELIKOF) TO REMAIN THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF THE TWO. THUS...NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALDEZ ALL
SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE ALREADY WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO FALL ON THE
UPSLOPE/WINDWARD SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPING IN
CONTROL FOR THE USUAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE TO THE
MAT-SU. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THROUGH THOMPSON PASS THAT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD ALLOW
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NEAR VALDEZ...AS COLD AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW
POSSIBILITIES AROUND ANCHORAGE AND UPPER COOK INLET LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM DRIFT
EASTWARD. WHILE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST...AS MENTIONED ABOVE PRECIP HAS NOW SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND COLD TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN INTERIOR PORTIONS THE BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE DELTA ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM AS IT WILL HAVE
ENTERED A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE BY THE TIME SNOW SPREADS NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
BROKEN UP INTO MORE SHOWERY PRECIP...AND REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED
AROUND BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CHAIN AS THE STORM WEAKENS
AND MOVES AWAY TONIGHT. THE STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL SLING
ANOTHER SHORT BUT POTENT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF MEANINGFUL CHANGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE BERING AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...WITH NONE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 161
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130-132 150 155
         GALE 125 127 129 136-141 165 170 172-178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1205 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

AKZ101-111-011300-

...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN ANCHORAGE AND PALMER
TONIGHT...

PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN
SOME FREEZING RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED WITH BE THE GLENN HIGHWAY AND
COMMUNITIES BETWEEN ANCHORAGE AND PALMER. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED. USE EXTRA CAUTION DRIVING AND WALKING FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1205 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

AKZ101-111-011300-

...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN ANCHORAGE AND PALMER
TONIGHT...

PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN
SOME FREEZING RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED WILL BE THE GLENN HIGHWAY AND
COMMUNITIES BETWEEN ANCHORAGE AND PALMER. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED. USE EXTRA CAUTION DRIVING AND WALKING FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.