Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

587 
FZAK52 PAFC 011229
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW IN THE CENTER OF SHELIKOF STRAIT WEAKENS TO A 993 MB LOW
OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET WED EVENING. A 970 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF
AMCHITKA STEADILY WEAKENS TO 991 MB THU NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 50 NM
WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF. COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE MERGES THU
NIGHT INTO A 967 MB CENTER 100 NM SOUTH OF ATTU.

$$

PKZ150-020300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT FROM COLD BAY W. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-020300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-020300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-020300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-020300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-020300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A GENERALLY ZONAL JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS UNDERWAY...WITH A MATURE
VERTICALLY-STACKED STORM NOW READILY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHES FROM BRISTOL BAY BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND RAIN HAVE SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW RAPIDLY FILLING IN FURTHER
WEST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. THIS IS A COMPACT AND TIGHTLY-WOUND
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP AND THE STRONGEST WINDS STAYING CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER THAN SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
NO MODELS SHOWING OVERTLY UNREALISTIC EVOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION TAKES
A STRONG LOW UP THE WESTERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT BEFORE CONTINUING
UP COOK INLET AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO STRADDLE THE ALEUTIAN RANGE ON A NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SPLIT CIRCULATION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN CIRCULATION (IN
SHELIKOF) TO REMAIN THE MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF THE TWO. THUS...NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALDEZ ALL
SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE ALREADY WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO FALL ON THE
UPSLOPE/WINDWARD SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPING IN
CONTROL FOR THE USUAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE TO THE
MAT-SU. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THROUGH THOMPSON PASS THAT
THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD ALLOW
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NEAR VALDEZ...AS COLD AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW
POSSIBILITIES AROUND ANCHORAGE AND UPPER COOK INLET LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM DRIFT
EASTWARD. WHILE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST...AS MENTIONED ABOVE PRECIP HAS NOW SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND COLD TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN INTERIOR PORTIONS THE BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE DELTA ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM AS IT WILL HAVE
ENTERED A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE BY THE TIME SNOW SPREADS NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
BROKEN UP INTO MORE SHOWERY PRECIP...AND REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED
AROUND BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CHAIN AS THE STORM WEAKENS
AND MOVES AWAY TONIGHT. THE STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL SLING
ANOTHER SHORT BUT POTENT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF MEANINGFUL CHANGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE BERING AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...WITH NONE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 161
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130-132 150 155
         GALE 125 127 129 136-141 165 170 172-178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 13