Gale Warning 159, NWS Anchorage, AK

145 
FZAK51 PAFC 010921 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1220 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

UPDATED ZONES 121 131

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH SAT. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF
SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
1220 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-011500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-011500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-011500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
1220 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-011500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-011500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-011500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

946 
FZAK51 PAFC 011244
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF
SUN MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ119-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-020300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-020300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-020300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-020300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-020300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-020300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE MAJORITY OF MAINLAND ALASKA
TODAY WITH A REINFORCING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A SERIES OF OLD FRONTS
ARE WEAKENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE ALL THAT IS IMPACTING MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING...WHICH IS DISSIPATING GRADUALLY AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION CONTINUES TO TRAP MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND. OUT
WEST...A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT IS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
OF RUSSIA. EASTWARD PROGRESS IS SLOWING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY RELATED TO THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A ROGUE UPPER LOW
THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY BEING SQUEEZED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS MORE STRENGTH IN
THIS FEATURE AS IT IS PUSHED AROUND WESTERN ALASKA BY STRONG UPPER
HIGHS...HOWEVER IT HAS LOST THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND THE NAM FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL CYCLES. THANKFULLY...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND WILL THUS HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY INVOLVES THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IN
THE AREA IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A WEAK SURFACE
LOW REFLECTION. THUS THE GFS/NAM IS THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION
TODAY...THOUGH LARGE-SCALE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT VIRTUALLY
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM (3.5 DAY) PERIOD AND LIKELY
BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUTFLOW
WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE COMING DAYS THROUGH FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE...THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL BELOW WARNING LEVELS. THE
SECONDARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG FOG CONTINUING AROUND UPPER COOK INLET AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. WITH STEADILY RISING PRESSURES AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR REPEAT
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL SEE NARROW BANDS OF RAIN/SNOW MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS WEAKEN
FROM THE BOTTOM UP. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA....USHERING IN
A DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL COME TO
AN END AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STALLS AND
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG AND MARINE STRATUS TO
DEVELOP UNDER WIDESPREAD SINKING AIR AND INCREASING TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLAND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ON TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ACT AS A PRECURSOR TO A LARGER COMPLEX LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE COMING WEEK...WITH OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THERE ARE SOME PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
SURGE MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GREATLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 14