Gale Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

009 
FZAK62 PAFC 011616 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN BERING TODAY AND SPREAD TO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUN. A WEAK
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO BRISTOL BAY BY
MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S 15 TO 25 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 19
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 TO 25 KT E OF 176W. SEAS
19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S 15 TO 25 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 TO 25 KT E OF 177W.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE TO NE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-020300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT WEST OF 166W.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

222 
FZAK62 PAFC 012354
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAKEN ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH MON...WHILE A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO
NEAR 48N 162W AT 987 MB MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
 12 TO 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 


$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 11
TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT E OF 176W. SEAS 9
TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 10 KT W OF 168W. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

092 
FZAK62 PAFC 021236
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH MON. A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO
NEAR 48N 162W AT 989 MB MON AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
WEATHER FRONTS TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE MAJORITY OF MAINLAND ALASKA
TODAY WITH A REINFORCING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A SERIES OF OLD FRONTS
ARE WEAKENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE ALL THAT IS IMPACTING MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING...WHICH IS DISSIPATING GRADUALLY AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION CONTINUES TO TRAP MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND. OUT
WEST...A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT IS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
OF RUSSIA. EASTWARD PROGRESS IS SLOWING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY RELATED TO THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A ROGUE UPPER LOW
THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY BEING SQUEEZED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS MORE STRENGTH IN
THIS FEATURE AS IT IS PUSHED AROUND WESTERN ALASKA BY STRONG UPPER
HIGHS...HOWEVER IT HAS LOST THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND THE NAM FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL CYCLES. THANKFULLY...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND WILL THUS HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY INVOLVES THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IN
THE AREA IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A WEAK SURFACE
LOW REFLECTION. THUS THE GFS/NAM IS THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION
TODAY...THOUGH LARGE-SCALE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT VIRTUALLY
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM (3.5 DAY) PERIOD AND LIKELY
BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUTFLOW
WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE COMING DAYS THROUGH FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE...THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL BELOW WARNING LEVELS. THE
SECONDARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG FOG CONTINUING AROUND UPPER COOK INLET AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. WITH STEADILY RISING PRESSURES AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR REPEAT
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL SEE NARROW BANDS OF RAIN/SNOW MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS WEAKEN
FROM THE BOTTOM UP. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA....USHERING IN
A DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL COME TO
AN END AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS STALLS AND
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG AND MARINE STRATUS TO
DEVELOP UNDER WIDESPREAD SINKING AIR AND INCREASING TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLAND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ON TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ACT AS A PRECURSOR TO A LARGER COMPLEX LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE COMING WEEK...WITH OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THERE ARE SOME PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
SURGE MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GREATLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 14