Gale Warning 139, NWS Anchorage, AK

449 
FZAK62 PAFC 120100
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121300-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN
BERING LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY
LATE WED NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
THU MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 12 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM RUSSIA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
LOBE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST TODAY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEST TO
THE LOWER COOK INLET TO KODIAK ISLAND. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH DENSE COLD AIR OVER THE INTERIOR IS RESULTING IN STRONG
OUTFLOW GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS IN THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BRITISH COLUMBIA AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. SMALL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AS THE GFS IS A
TAD FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE LEANING TO A ECMWF
AND NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THEY ARE BOTH TRENDING TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS GOOD INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS BEING THE MOST CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
THE DRY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SNOW COVER. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SETTING UP A CLASSIC COLD ADVECTION SNOW EVENT
FOR THE NORTHERN COOK INLET. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE ISLAND. THEY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TOMORROW BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES. COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
THEN DROP SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY THURSDAY AND
HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
SEND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH SOME VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PULLING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAINLAND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT AREAS WILL BE.
OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE AND THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND POTENTIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. CONVERSELY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP THAT REGION ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH FREQUENT
EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 127 128 130 138 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 179
              414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 128 129 130 138 139 140 150 160
                              165 180 181 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111

SAM FEB 14