Gale Warning 182, NWS Anchorage, AK

250 
FZAK52 PAFC 111231
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG 175E OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH TUE EVENING. A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED WEATHER FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING SEA TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-120300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF PORT MOLLER...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...FROM COLD BAY W...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF COLD BAY...NW WIND 40
KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-120300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM UNALASKA W. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-120300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-120300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-120300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-120300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-120300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
 

$$

PKZ185-120300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND W...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT.  FROM SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND W...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND NEAR
THE ICE EDGE.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM RUSSIA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TO A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
LOBE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST TODAY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEST TO
THE LOWER COOK INLET TO KODIAK ISLAND. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH DENSE COLD AIR OVER THE INTERIOR IS RESULTING IN STRONG
OUTFLOW GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS IN THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BRITISH COLUMBIA AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. SMALL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AS THE GFS IS A
TAD FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE LEANING TO A ECMWF
AND NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THEY ARE BOTH TRENDING TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS GOOD INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS BEING THE MOST CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
THE DRY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SNOW COVER. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SETTING UP A CLASSIC COLD ADVECTION SNOW EVENT
FOR THE NORTHERN COOK INLET. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE ISLAND. THEY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TOMORROW BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES. COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
THEN DROP SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY THURSDAY AND
HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
SEND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH SOME VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PULLING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAINLAND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT AREAS WILL BE.
OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE AND THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND POTENTIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. CONVERSELY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP THAT REGION ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH FREQUENT
EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 127 128 130 138 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 179
              414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 128 129 130 138 139 140 150 160
                              165 180 181 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111

SAM FEB 14