Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POINTS EAST TO NEW
MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 13 DEGREES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAYS
READINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CO BORDER
WILL MAKE ITS STRONGEST PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
NE AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES...SO THE SANGRES EASTWARD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BANK UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...CAUSING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND E SLOPES TO BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SET
UP FROM SW NM TO N CA...WHICH WILL FUNNEL DRIER AIR INTO NM AND
SHUNT ANY MONSOON MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FOR
FRIDAY. MODELS PROG THE MID LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD OVER S NM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO HINT THAT
MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY UNDER AND AROUND THE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS DIVERGE ON PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTROID
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS MIGRATING IT TO THE TX PANHANDLE
AND THE ECMWF SHIFTING IT NORTHWARD TO SE CO. THIS MAKES EXTENDED
POP FORECASTING CHALLENGING...BECAUSE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST EMPHASIZES CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES. WITH THE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SOME HAVE BECOME LOCALLY STRONG OR
SEVERE...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHERE ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING. PROLONGED STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS ZONE 109 AS WELL AS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BY MIDNIGHT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG IT.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BRIEFLY AS WELL. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND BEHIND
IT...THUS THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND THE STORMS THIS EVENING
WILL YIELD EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL
LESSEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA SIGNIFICANTLY...
THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MICROBURSTS OCCURRING WITH WHAT
STORMS DO FORM DUE TO THE FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. ASIDE FROM
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...GENERAL NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE AS
WELL. IF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IT SHOULD MIX
BACK EAST EARLY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED...AND
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS...OF COURSE...IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TONIGHTS
CONVECTION AND HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE. IF STORMS DO
FORM...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ONCE
AGAIN.

THE DRY AIR WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN FURTHER. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE RECYCLED IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL HAVE CEASED. INSTEAD...WIDESPREAD
HAINES VALUES OF 5 AND 6 WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK OVER NM OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD
DRY OUT THE AREA FURTHER...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR.
WIDESPREAD 5 AND 6 HAINES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST.

BY MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH. THE GFS FAVORS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
NEAR AMARILLO...WHILE THE ECMWF POINTS THE CENTER TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH
LOOKS TO BE SPRAWLING ACROSS NM AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...THUS IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY FAIR VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE AREAWIDE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS. POOR VENTILATION MAY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WEST AS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND
TRANSPORT WINDS LOWER.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO BUBBLE OVER THE MTS.
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 19Z. SCT TO NMRS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TODAY...THEN AS A
COLD FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE NE PLAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE S OR SE AROUND 10 TO 15KT...THUS CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS EARLY THIS AFTN MAY ALSO DRIFT SE OVER THE NE
PLAINS...BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NE AND EC PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AS WELL AS MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORM.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  91  59  93 /  30  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  47  87  46  88 /  40  30  10  10
CUBA............................  52  85  51  87 /  60  30  10  20
GALLUP..........................  54  88  54  91 /  30  10   5  10
EL MORRO........................  50  81  52  83 /  50  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  51  86  51  88 /  40  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  53  82  54  84 /  40  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  54  89  54  93 /  30  20  10  20
CHAMA...........................  44  79  44  81 /  60  50  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  82  58  83 /  50  40  20  20
PECOS...........................  54  77  54  81 /  60  60  40  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  51  79 /  60  60  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  45  65  44  71 /  60  70  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  40  71  41  75 /  60  70  40  30
TAOS............................  49  79  50  82 /  50  50  30  20
MORA............................  51  73  51  79 /  60  70  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  56  86  56  89 /  50  40  20  10
SANTA FE........................  57  81  57  83 /  50  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  87  56  88 /  50  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  89  63  90 /  40  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  92  65  92 /  40  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  93  63  93 /  40  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  94  65  94 /  40  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  94  60  94 /  40  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  64  94  64  94 /  40  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  68  96  67  97 /  50  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  89  58  89 /  40  50  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  58  88  58  88 /  40  50  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  85  52  85 /  50  50  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  79  54  84 /  50  70  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  86  59  88 /  50  60  40  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  86  62  88 /  40  40  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  55  81  54  81 /  40  60  40  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  68  53  79 /  80  50  30  30
RATON...........................  57  72  55  83 /  60  60  30  30
SPRINGER........................  57  76  55  85 /  60  50  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  74  52  82 /  60  60  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  58  74  57  85 /  80  40  20  10
ROY.............................  59  74  58  82 /  60  40  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  65  82  63  90 /  60  30  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  64  81  62  89 /  60  30  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  81  61  91 /  60  30  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  79  57  84 /  60  30  20   5
PORTALES........................  65  85  61  87 /  60  30  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  83  63  88 /  60  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  66  92 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  61  86 /  40  70  50  10
ELK.............................  60  80  58  80 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>518-527>532-534.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
603 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON
TO CLOVIS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL FROM STRONGER STORMS MAY AGAIN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY STILL BRING SOME RISK OF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO
CLOVIS DUE TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS.

43

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

NMZ510-162215-
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
327 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM MDT...

AT 318 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF CANJILON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TIERRA AMARILLA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CANJILON...CEBOLLA...CANJILON
CREEK CAMPGROUND AND CANJILON LAKES.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 10612 3639 10656 3665 10655 3669 10633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 345DEG 11KT 3658 10641