Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO BUBBLE OVER THE MTS.
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 19Z. SCT TO NMRS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TODAY...THEN AS A
COLD FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE NE PLAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE S OR SE AROUND 10 TO 15KT...THUS CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS EARLY THIS AFTN MAY ALSO DRIFT SE OVER THE NE
PLAINS...BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NE AND EC PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AS WELL AS MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1120 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW HIGHLANDS EASTWARD DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. PWATS FROM 1 TO 1.35 INCHES SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...DECREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING WILL ENABLE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY THROUGH MID DAY. SPECIAL CONCERN
IS WARRANTED N OF SANTA FE TO EMBUDO...INCLUDING THE
POJOAQUE...ESPANOLA AND LOS ALAMOS AREAS...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL IN SOME LOCATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS/NIGHTS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WEST OF SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PLAINS LOCATIONS
FARTHER EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
AND BETTER DYNAMICS THERE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
WARMING AND...ESPECIALLY AFTER TONIGHT...DRYING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RESULTANT WARMING ALOFT BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN RISKS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER HIGH
GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT
TO RETARD CLOUDS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INJECTION OF UPPER DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG MORNING ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS
LINGER. SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE STATE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. STILL CAN EXPECT SOME
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM STRONGER STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND MAINLY EAST HALF ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE WARMER MOST LOCALES TODAY. EXPECTING SOME SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN STORMS THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD TO PERHAPS HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIKELY FURTHER DECREASE...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND EAST...FRIDAY.

WHILE ISOLATED TO AT TIMES POTENTIALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...LOWLAND
LOCALES WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHORTEN THE LIFESPAN OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
WANDER OFF THE SAFER HAVEN OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
AFTERNOON HEAT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE
DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEGINS TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE LAST ACTIVE DAY
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY WILL
BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH NEXT WEEK BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS
ARE RESULTING IN DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...BOTH MODELS HINTING AT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...HOWEVER...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS AND RELATIVELY POOR MIXING HEIGHTS.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>518-527>532-534.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
603 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON
TO CLOVIS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL FROM STRONGER STORMS MAY AGAIN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY STILL BRING SOME RISK OF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO
CLOVIS DUE TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS.

43

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