Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tucson, AZ

August 2, 2013Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 2, 2013, 2:17 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 118 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 2, 2013, 2:17 PM MST (21:17 UTC)
Expired: Aug 2, 2013, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 118 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 709 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1879 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

986 
WGUS55 KTWC 022117
FFWTWC
AZC003-022315-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0032.130802T2117Z-130802T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SIERRA VISTA...BISBEE...

* UNTIL 415 PM MST

* AT 212 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  NICKSVILLE...JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 80 AND 90 AND HEREFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 11027 3150 11034 3157 11030 3159 11016
      3161 10988 3133 10987 3134 11022

$$

GL

2 follow-up statements

303 
WGUS75 KTWC 022212
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
312 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

AZC003-022315-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130802T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
312 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 303 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BISBEE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO 
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SIERRA VISTA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 11027 3150 11034 3157 11030 3159 11016
      3161 10988 3133 10987 3134 11022

$$

925 
WGUS75 KTWC 022308
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
408 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

AZC003-022318-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130802T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
408 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. 
THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FLOWS IN AREA WASHES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS 
EVENING. 

LAT

LAT...LON 3140 11027 3150 11034 3157 11030 3159 11016
      3161 10988 3133 10987 3134 11022

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 2, 8:40 AM MST, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 8:40 AM MST, 5 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 AM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUICKER CLEARING THIS MORNING WITH MUCH LESS DEBRIS
CLOUD. STILL VERY WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO THE 1.7 TO 1.8
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY. ANOTHER DAY WITH WEAK STORM LEVEL FLOW AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST SEVERE POSSIBLE. ON THE LARGER SCALE SE AZ IS IN A SWATH
OF MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE LOW
PUSHING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK INFLECTION ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING FROM NORTHEAST SONORA INTO SANTA CRUZ
AND PIMA COUNTY TODAY. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA...AND THE
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION / CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS WERE HIT PRETTY HARD YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. NO NOTEWORTHY LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO AID IN
DAILY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE POP FORECAST AROUND CLIMO VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY DAILY BUT IN GENERAL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL. SCT TSRA DEVELOPING
AFT 02/18Z AND CONTINUING THRU 03/05Z. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS NEAR ANY
TSRA...AS WELL AS LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 03/16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 11:08 AM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1108 AM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

AZZ507-513-021845-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1108 AM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND
WESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM MST...

AT 1100 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIERRA VISTA NEAR
HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN SONOITA AND WHETSTONE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUACHUCA CITY...FORT HUACHUCA
AND WHETSTONE.

LAT...LON 3180 11034 3158 11027 3160 11053 3168 11054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 263DEG 7KT 3170 11044

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:51 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1251 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

AZZ507-513-022030-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1251 PM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM MST...

AT 1242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TOMBSTONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3190 11002 3175 10988 3162 11006 3174 11018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 219DEG 5KT 3173 11006

MEYER

Local storm report, Aug 2, 1:57 PM MST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
157 PM MST FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE MARANA             32.34N 111.07W
08/02/2013                   PIMA               AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS POWER POLE DOWN ON INA BETWEEN
            1-10 AND SILVERBELL

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300090

RH

Local storm report, Aug 2, 2:08 PM MST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N HEREFORD            31.47N 110.19W
08/02/2013  M58 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300091

RH

Local storm report, Aug 2, 2:09 PM MST, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
209 PM MST FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     HAIL             1 N HEREFORD            31.45N 110.19W
08/02/2013  E0.88 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300092

RH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 2, 11:08 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	37 min
Aug 2, 11:25 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Aug 2, 11:47 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	118 min
Aug 2, 11:54 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	51 min
Aug 2, 12:09 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Aug 2, 12:18 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	117 min
Aug 2, 12:51 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	39 min
Aug 2, 1:28 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Aug 2, 1:38 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Aug 2, 1:42 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Aug 2, 1:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	38 min
Aug 2, 1:57 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	48 min
Aug 2, 2:27 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	33 min
Aug 2, 3:10 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	50 min
Aug 2, 3:47 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	118 min
Aug 2, 3:58 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.