Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
720 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW CIGS THEN BECOMING A CONCERN DURING THE MORNING
ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CONCERN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD KFSM
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES IN THAT
DIRECTION. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN TO AS LOW AS IFR IN ANY
TSRA THAT AFFECTS AIRPORTS DIRECTLY. MORNING CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE AS WELL.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AND HERE WE GO AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS EXPLODING ALONG FRONT
SITUATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY TO WEST OF OKC METRO WITH INTERSECTING
DRY LINE OVER FAR SW OK. STORMS SOUTHWEST OF OKC RAPIDLY BECAME
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THREAT OF THAT EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO
FORM OVER OSAGE/PAWNEE AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. SEVERE
WEATHER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS ROUND AND
ALL MODES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

CONCERN LATER TONIGHT TURNS TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS STORMS
SPREAD EAST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TARGETING AN AREA FROM CENTRAL OK
THROUGH NORTHWEST AR WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF PRECIP...THOUGH
WITH SOME OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF. ENOUGH
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF I-44
BY TUESDAY THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CARRIED ONLY FOR
TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DEGREE OF THREAT
CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A POTENTIAL ISSUE HERE IS A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO TX/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THAT WILL BE TARGETED TONIGHT. GFS IS THE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN THIS SOLUTION BUT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER SE OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIKELY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO RETURN
NORTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY. PATTERN LOOKS EARLY SUMMER LIKE AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST...COULD SEE SOME OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  76  57  82 /  80  60  10  10
FSM   70  77  60  84 /  80  90  70  10
MLC   70  76  56  85 /  80  80  20  10
BVO   60  77  50  80 /  70  40  10  10
FYV   65  74  53  78 /  90  80  60  10
BYV   64  75  56  79 /  90  90  70  10
MKO   67  76  56  82 /  90  80  20  10
MIO   63  76  54  80 /  80  70  30  10
F10   68  76  57  82 /  90  60  10  10
HHW   70  81  63  86 /  70  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE... REST OF TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
        ONSET....ONGOING...DECREASING RISK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING...DECREASING RISK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
        RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. TORNADOES...HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND AND WIND GUSTS TO
80 MPH WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PERIOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEE /OKCNPWTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING RISK WITH REDEVELOPING STORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL RATE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND
WILL AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW OZARK              35.45N 93.88W
05/20/2013                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGDALE              36.19N 94.13W
05/20/2013                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** DEBRIS STRUCK VEHICLE.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ054-055-060-061-210400-
OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1025 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN ROGERS...NORTHERN TULSA AND
     SOUTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 1025 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OOLOGAH TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SPERRY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...OOLOGAH...TALALA...OWASSO...
SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE AND VERA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3638 9548 3617 9615 3626 9621 3659 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 251DEG 21KT 3643 9573 3623 9613

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TORNADO          5 N PADEN               35.58N 96.57W
05/19/2013                   OKFUSKEE           OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO DEVELOPED NORTH NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE IN
            LINCOLN COUNTY AND MOVED NORTHEAST...DISSIPATING WEST OF
            WELTY IN OKFUSKEE COUNTY. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
            UPROOTED AND BARNS WERE DESTROYED. RATING BASED ON THIS
            DAMAGE IS EF-1.

&&

EJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ055-060-061-210430-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN ROGERS...NORTHERN TULSA AND WASHINGTON

AT 1056 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
COLLINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OOLOGAH...TALALA...COLLINSVILLE
AND VERA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3650 9544 3633 9581 3636 9595 3658 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 232DEG 37KT 3637 9585

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ073-210500-
PITTSBURG OK-
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 1137 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
KIOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KIOWA...PITTSBURG AND BLANCO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3460 9589 3467 9589 3468 9596 3483 9576
      3460 9555 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 244DEG 30KT 3458 9591