Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Tulsa, OK

067 
WWUS54 KTSA 210039
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
739 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARC007-015-210100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-130521T0100Z/
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-
739 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BEAVER TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF EUREKA SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING 
WINDS IN SPRINGDALE NORTH THROUGH BENTON COUNTY.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PLEASANT
RIDGE...GRANDVIEW...URBANETTE...OAK GROVE AND BLUE EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE OUTDOORS
SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 9405 3651 9417 3650 9330 3646 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 250DEG 50KT 3656 9372 3627 9366

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AND HERE WE GO AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS EXPLODING ALONG FRONT
SITUATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY TO WEST OF OKC METRO WITH INTERSECTING
DRY LINE OVER FAR SW OK. STORMS SOUTHWEST OF OKC RAPIDLY BECAME
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THREAT OF THAT EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO
FORM OVER OSAGE/PAWNEE AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. SEVERE
WEATHER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS ROUND AND
ALL MODES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

CONCERN LATER TONIGHT TURNS TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS STORMS
SPREAD EAST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TARGETING AN AREA FROM CENTRAL OK
THROUGH NORTHWEST AR WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF PRECIP...THOUGH
WITH SOME OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF. ENOUGH
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF I-44
BY TUESDAY THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CARRIED ONLY FOR
TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DEGREE OF THREAT
CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A POTENTIAL ISSUE HERE IS A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO TX/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THAT WILL BE TARGETED TONIGHT. GFS IS THE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN THIS SOLUTION BUT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER SE OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIKELY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO RETURN
NORTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY. PATTERN LOOKS EARLY SUMMER LIKE AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST...COULD SEE SOME OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  76  57  82 /  90  60  10  10
FSM   70  77  60  84 /  80  90  70  10
MLC   70  76  56  85 /  90  80  20  10
BVO   60  77  50  80 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   65  74  53  78 /  90  80  60  10
BYV   64  75  56  79 /  90  90  70  10
MKO   67  76  56  82 /  90  80  20  10
MIO   63  76  54  80 /  80  70  30  10
F10   68  76  57  82 /  90  60  10  10
HHW   70  81  63  86 /  70  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING...RISK FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...ONGOING.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA .

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF I-40.

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
CARRY A A HIGH RISK OF LONG TRACK TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
AND AND WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT
TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THESE AREAS MAY BE COMMON. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 7 INCH AMOUNTS
WILL QUICKLY HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND WILL
AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOST OF THE WEATHER HAS REMAINED WEST OF THOSE
LOCATIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TORNADO          3 S AVANT               36.45N 96.06W
05/20/2013                   OSAGE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE SPOTTERS AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORT A LARGE
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND THAT FIRST DEVELOPED NEAR AVANT AND
            CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. A TORNADO
            REMAINS ON THE GROUND EAST OF RAMONA PER BROADCAST MEDIA
            AS OF 428 PM.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          4 W TALALA              36.53N 95.77W
05/20/2013                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA HIGHWAY PATROL

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
05/20/2013  E65 MPH          MCINTOSH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            60 TO 65 MPH WINDS REPORTED BY THE CHECOTAH POLICE
            DEPARTMENT.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             WAINWRIGHT              35.61N 95.56W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E CENTRAILIA          36.80N 95.21W
05/20/2013  M66 MPH          CRAIG              OK   MESONET

            MEASURED 66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE VINITA MESONET.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          8 S QUAPAW              36.84N 94.79W
05/20/2013                   OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE TO A DIESEL SHOP. NUMEROUS POWER POLES SNAPPED.
            SEMI TRAILERS BLOWN OFF THE ROAD. 50 TO 60 FOOT TREE ALSO
            BLOCKING A ROADWAY 3 MILES EAST OF TWIN BRIDGES LIKELY
            FROM THE SAME TORNADO.

&&

KAH