Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

627 
WGUS74 KTSA 211641
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKC077-079-121-127-211800-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130521T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LE FLORE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-LATIMER OK-
1141 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATIMER...NORTHERN
PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHERN PITTSBURG AND LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1138 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 4 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH 100 PM.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO 
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE 
ONGOING FLOODING. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLAYTON...POTEAU...WILBURTON...ALBION...ASHLAND...BENGAL...BIG
CEDAR...BLANCO...CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK...DAMON...DUNBAR...
FANSHAWE...HARTSHORNE...HEAVENER...HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK...
HIGGINS...HOWE...KIAMICHI...KIOWA...KOSOMA...LAKE WISTER STATE
PARK...MOYERS...MUSE...NASHOBA...OCTAVIA...RED OAK...SAVANNA...
SNOW...STANLEY AND TALIHINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN HILLY TERRAIN ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN
HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND
ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER
TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 9578 3450 9579 3451 9568 3459 9568
      3459 9588 3468 9589 3468 9609 3479 9610
      3509 9444 3450 9447 3450 9504

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AT THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES AND ALSO AT KMLC TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THIS ACTIVITY. KTUL AND KRVS
MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KFYV AND KXNA WHERE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CORRECTED TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF FLOOD WATCH
FOR THOSE COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE  ELEVATED THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
RATHER ACTIVE AT 930Z. COOL FRONT FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO LOW IN
WEST TEXAS. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SLOW COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN
AND THUNDER FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE INCLUSION OF
CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES.

THUNDER THREAT FINALLY ENDS THIS EVENING AS H5
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MINIMAL POP RETAINED FROM EARLIER FORECAST FOR
MOIST FLOW WORKING UNDER H5 RIDGE THURSDAY.

ECMWF FORECAST WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH PRECIP.
GFS DRY. LEANED WITH ECMWF OUTCOME FOR CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD TODAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO OZARK LINE. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILTY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK AND WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-076-210900-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
320 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 319 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DYER TO 4 MILES WEST OF FORT
CHAFFEE TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTFORD TO 10 MILES EAST OF
WHITESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE FORT
SMITH...OZARK...POTEAU AND WISTER.

THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

LAT...LON 3536 9375 3540 9380 3532 9381 3532 9390
      3523 9393 3522 9402 3513 9404 3514 9413
      3510 9414 3507 9423 3496 9424 3495 9436
      3492 9444 3471 9445 3468 9500 3533 9460
      3550 9451 3557 9370 3538 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 263DEG 34KT 3545 9405 3523 9408
          3500 9437 3473 9468

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
854 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TORNADO          3 E PROCTOR             35.97N 94.72W
05/20/2013                   ADAIR              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER AND COLOCATED WITH A
            STRONG RADAR CIRCULATION. TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 62.
            TORNADO MAY HAVE CONTINUED TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER
            BRIDGE ON HIGHWAY 59 NORTH OF WESTVILLE WHERE MORE TREE
            DAMAGE WAS NOTED. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0649 PM     TORNADO          2 N SILOAM SPRINGS      36.22N 94.54W
05/20/2013                   BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTO OF A SMALL TORNADO RECEIVED. TREE DAMAGE WAS
            REPORTED IN THE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0832 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW BOKOSHE           35.16N 94.87W
05/20/2013                   LE FLORE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT RADIO OF A TORNADO BETWEEN
            MCCURTAIN AND BOKOSHE COLOCATED WITH A STRONG RADAR
            CIRCULATION. BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED POWER FLASHES IN
            THE AREA. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED TREE DAMAGE. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0850 PM     TORNADO          CAMERON                 35.13N 94.53W
05/20/2013                   LE FLORE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT RADIO REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR CAMERON
            COLOCATED WITH A STRONG RADAR CIRCULATION. IT MAY HAVE
            CONTINUED TO THE ROCK ISLAND VICINITY. EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT REPORTS POWER LINES DOWN IN CAMERON. DAMAGE TO
            A SINGLE WIDE TRAILER HOME IN THE LIBERTY HILL AREA. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH