River Flood Watch 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO VFR
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL AFFECT KBVO EARLY THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ASIDE FROM A ROGUE SHOWER
OR STORM. STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE INTO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NW AR BY THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AGAIN BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 412 EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHICH COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING AS WELL. SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT THESE FEATURES MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AIRMASS ALREADY RECOVERING FROM EXTREME SE THROUGH NW OKLAHOMA IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS AND EVENTUALLY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOME
DEGREE OVER EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY FURTHER
COMPLICATING MATTERS. LARGER PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH DRY LINE MIXING A BIT FARTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES SHOW
MUCH LESS BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS REMAINING DISCRETE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT SHOULD SEE AN AXIS OF HIGHER VALUES EAST OF THE DRY
LINE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OK LATE AND MOVING TOWARD
NE OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING. WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM TONIGHT WITH CAP STRENGTH QUICKLY
INCREASING...WHICH WOULD CAUSE STORMS TO WANE OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ON EDGE OF CAP MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. CAP REMAINS IN PLACE MOST OF FRIDAY WITH
VOLATILE AIRMASS SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP
RAPIDLY ALONG DRY LINE AND FRONT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT GIVEN
EXTREME INSTABILITY FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL
BE NORTH OF I-40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNDAY TURING OUT TO BE A NICE
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  72  84  67 /  60  30  40  90
FSM   81  70  86  69 /  70  30  10  80
MLC   80  73  87  72 /  50  20  10  60
BVO   81  70  84  65 /  60  40  60  90
FYV   76  67  83  68 /  80  40  20  80
BYV   77  67  83  66 /  90  60  30  90
MKO   79  70  86  69 /  60  30  10  80
MIO   79  71  83  66 /  70  40  40  90
F10   80  72  86  69 /  50  30  10  70
HHW   83  71  88  70 /  50  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
827 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
827 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...WITH GREATEST THREAT AFTER 4 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH NOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...ALTHOUGH THE GREATER SEVERE STORM THREAT
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ANY
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
ENHANCED IF STORMS CAN ANCHOR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM
THE MORNING STORMS. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR
LINES AND MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING.

TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
         HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT...INTERACTING WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. EARLY IN THE EVENT THE
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES EXISTS...WITH A TRANSITION
TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS WILL
GROW INTO CLUSTERS AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BECAUSE OF THIS...WITH
ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING AS MUCH AS 9 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ054-300945-
OSAGE OK-
412 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 412 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PEARSONIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER AND
WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3651 9640 3661 9674 3701 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 216DEG 30KT 3681 9641

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     FLOOD            SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
05/30/2013                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER NEAR HOUSES ALONG OAK STREET ON SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

CAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
839 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ071-073-301415-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
839 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 839 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SCIPIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...HANNA...VERNON...
RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...SCIPIO...INDIANOLA...CANADIAN AND LAKE
EUFAULA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3516 9599 3522 9599 3548 9561 3526 9545
      3502 9595 3512 9602 3514 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 235DEG 30KT 3512 9593

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ062-063-068-301530-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
949 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN MAYES

AT 949 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...LEACH...CHLOETA...LOCUST
GROVE...ROSE AND LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3653 9494 3636 9467 3606 9516 3611 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 223DEG 46KT 3611 9515