River Flood Warning 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

977 
WGUS84 KTSA 301945
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK AT AVANT AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY AFFECTING OSAGE AND TULSA COUNTIES. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO AFFECTING TULSA COUNTY. 
  
OKC113-310345-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130531T0600Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.130531T0000Z.130531T0000Z.130531T0000Z.NO/
245 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  130 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.97 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 
  FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG THE BIRD CREEK 
  FLOODPLAIN DOWNSTREAM FROM AVANT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. 
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

OKC113-143-310345-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0015.130530T1935Z-130601T0735Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.130530T1825Z.130531T1200Z.130601T0135Z.NO/
245 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.45 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  24.0 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON 
  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE EXTENDED FLOODING ALONG BIRD 
  CREEK NEAR SPERRY AND UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS IN RURAL AREAS FROM
  SKIATOOK TO TURLEY.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-310345-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0016.130530T2324Z-130601T0508Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.130530T2324Z.130531T0600Z.130531T2308Z.NO/
245 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.74 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO IS EXPECTED TO RISE 
  ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.0 
  FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON 
  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE EXTENDED FLOODING ALONG BIRD 
  CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO AND UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED 
  CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS NEAR MOHAWK PARK.  
  56TH STREET NORTH MAY BE IMPASSABLE NEAR MINGO ROAD.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

218 
WGUS84 KTSA 310230
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK AT AVANT AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY AFFECTING OSAGE AND TULSA COUNTIES. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO AFFECTING TULSA COUNTY. 
  
  CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY. 
  
OKC113-311030-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130531T1537Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.130530T2218Z.130531T0600Z.130531T0937Z.NO/
930 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.34 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  19.6 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE DAWN. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON 
  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE EXTENDED FLOODING ALONG THE BIRD
  CREEK NEAR AVANT AND UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF FARMLANDS OCCURS ALONG THE
  FLOODPLAIN OF BIRD CREEK DOWNTREAM FROM AVANT.  
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

OKC113-143-311030-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130601T1745Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.130530T1825Z.130531T1800Z.130601T1145Z.NO/
930 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.30 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  24.7 FEET EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS IN RURAL AREAS FROM
  SKIATOOK TO TURLEY.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-311030-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130601T1200Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.130531T1800Z.130531T1800Z.130601T0600Z.NO/
930 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.72 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 
  NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS AT MOHAWK PARK AND 
  ALONG 56TH STREET NORTH NEAR MINGO ROAD.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC147-311030-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0017.130531T0600Z-130601T0912Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.130531T0600Z.130531T1800Z.130601T0312Z.NO/
930 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  900 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.28 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 
  FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY BEFORE DAWN AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 27.2 
  FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON 
  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE EXTENDED FLOODING ALONG THE CANEY
  RIVER NEAR RAMONA AND UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  OCHELATA TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF TULSA COUNTY.  SOME RURAL ROADS
  ARE IMPASSABLE INCLUDING THE ROAD BETWEEN RAMONA AND TALALA.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9593 3647 9593 3637 9584 3637 9576 3664 9580

$$

012 
WGUS84 KTSA 310506
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK AT AVANT AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY. 
  
OKC113-311306-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130531T1537Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.130530T2218Z.130531T0600Z.130531T0937Z.NO/
1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT.
* UNTIL THIS MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1130 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.84 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  19.6 FEET BEFORE DAWN . THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF FARMLANDS OCCURS ALONG THE
  FLOODPLAIN OF BIRD CREEK DOWNTREAM FROM AVANT.  
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

079 
WGUS84 KTSA 311343
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK AT AVANT AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY. 
  
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY AFFECTING OSAGE AND TULSA COUNTIES. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO AFFECTING TULSA COUNTY. 
  
OKC113-311413-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130531T1537Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.130530T2218Z.130531T0330Z.130531T0823Z.NO/
843 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT.
* AT  830 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS  8.18 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK AT AVANT WILL CONTINUE FALLING AND REMAIN
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT 
  COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ALONG BIRD CREEK AT AVANT AND INTERESTED 
  PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY NEW WARNINGS.


$$

OKC113-143-312143-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130601T1606Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.130530T1825Z.130531T1800Z.130601T1006Z.NO/
843 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  700 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.41 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  24.9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY 
  AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ALONG BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY. 
  UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS IN RURAL AREAS FROM
  SKIATOOK TO TURLEY.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-312143-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130601T1617Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.130531T0541Z.130601T0000Z.130601T1017Z.NO/
843 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.25 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO WILL CONTINUE RISING TO
  NEAR 18.8 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL LATER 
  TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ALONG BIRD CREEK 
  NEAR OWASSO-MINGO. UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS NEAR MOHAWK PARK.  
  56TH STREET NORTH MAY BE IMPASSABLE NEAR MINGO ROAD.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO VFR
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL AFFECT KBVO EARLY THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ASIDE FROM A ROGUE SHOWER
OR STORM. STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE INTO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NW AR BY THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AGAIN BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 412 EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHICH COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING AS WELL. SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT THESE FEATURES MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AIRMASS ALREADY RECOVERING FROM EXTREME SE THROUGH NW OKLAHOMA IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS AND EVENTUALLY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOME
DEGREE OVER EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY FURTHER
COMPLICATING MATTERS. LARGER PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH DRY LINE MIXING A BIT FARTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES SHOW
MUCH LESS BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS REMAINING DISCRETE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT SHOULD SEE AN AXIS OF HIGHER VALUES EAST OF THE DRY
LINE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OK LATE AND MOVING TOWARD
NE OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING. WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM TONIGHT WITH CAP STRENGTH QUICKLY
INCREASING...WHICH WOULD CAUSE STORMS TO WANE OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ON EDGE OF CAP MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. CAP REMAINS IN PLACE MOST OF FRIDAY WITH
VOLATILE AIRMASS SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP
RAPIDLY ALONG DRY LINE AND FRONT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT GIVEN
EXTREME INSTABILITY FORECAST...STAY TUNED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL
BE NORTH OF I-40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNDAY TURING OUT TO BE A NICE
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  72  84  67 /  60  30  40  90
FSM   81  70  86  69 /  70  30  10  80
MLC   80  73  87  72 /  50  20  10  60
BVO   81  70  84  65 /  60  40  60  90
FYV   76  67  83  68 /  80  40  20  80
BYV   77  67  83  66 /  90  60  30  90
MKO   79  70  86  69 /  60  30  10  80
MIO   79  71  83  66 /  70  40  40  90
F10   80  72  86  69 /  50  30  10  70
HHW   83  71  88  70 /  50  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
542 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS DROPPED ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS MOVES
OUT OF OKLAHOMA OR DISSIPATES.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE
OVER WEST CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHEAST OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR
PROFILE WITH RESPECT TO DRYLINE SUGGESTS THAT A DISCRETE STORM MODE
WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED IF STORMS
CAN ANCHOR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THE MORNING STORMS.
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES AND MOVE EAST
INTO SE OK AND/OR NW AR THIS EVENING.

TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO FLOODING LATER TODAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT...COLLIDING
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ALOFT WILL
STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. EARLY
IN THE EVENT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
EXISTS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PARALLEL NATURE OF THE WINDS
ALOFT TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL GROW INTO CLUSTERS
AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BECAUSE OF THIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
231 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-300800-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON
AR-
231 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN BENTON...CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...MADISON AND
     EASTERN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 231 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLA VISTA TO WESLEY TO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LONELM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344
      3597 9345 3592 9350 3587 9352 3577 9351
      3576 9369 3559 9369 3546 9405 3601 9400
      3650 9430 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 247DEG 45KT 3647 9416 3604 9390
          3559 9394

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ068-070>074-300815-
CHEROKEE OK-HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH
OK-
236 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHWESTERN
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...EASTERN MCINTOSH AND NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 236 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EUFAULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3561 9481 3523 9549 3534 9567 3582 9535
      3581 9527 3585 9523 3587 9523 3588 9525
      3591 9529 3592 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 222DEG 42KT 3536 9550

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ002-011-300845-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
302 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL AND EASTERN MADISON

AT 302 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BUSCH TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARBLE TO 14 MILES SOUTH
OF DUTTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3592 9350 3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9369
      3609 9368 3643 9387 3650 9387 3650 9330
      3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 261DEG 35KT 3648 9377 3610 9356
          3562 9364

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ054-300945-
OSAGE OK-
412 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 412 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PEARSONIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER AND
WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3651 9640 3661 9674 3701 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 216DEG 30KT 3681 9641

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     FLOOD            SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
05/30/2013                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER NEAR HOUSES ALONG OAK STREET ON SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

CAS