Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Topeka, KS

176 
WWUS53 KTOP 182056
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC045-059-182130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-130618T2130Z/
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLOBE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLOBE AND CENTROPOLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9551 3883 9550 3884 9537 3873 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 326DEG 9KT 3877 9544

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

095 
WWUS53 KTOP 182110
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC045-059-182130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-130618T2130Z/
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 407 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
CENTROPOLIS...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL BROKE SOME 
WINDOWS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLOBE. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9551 3865 9551 3870 9551 3878 9550
      3879 9538 3870 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 351DEG 13KT 3869 9546

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

606 
WWUS53 KTOP 182132
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC045-059-182142-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-130618T2130Z/
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3864 9551 3865 9551 3870 9551 3878 9550
      3879 9538 3870 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 351DEG 13KT 3869 9546

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-192045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE ON LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. AN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ023-038-182045-
POTTAWATOMIE-WABAUNSEE-
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTH CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTH CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ST. GEORGE...LOUISVILLE...WAMEGO...BELVUE AND ST.
MARYS.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9603 3917 9604 3904 9633 3910 9639
      3917 9639 3919 9646 3917 9647 3934 9667
      3940 9672 3953 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 315DEG 19KT 3928 9641

BOWEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             8 SSW WESTMORELAND      39.29N 96.45W
06/18/2013  E1.25 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA AND DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

KSANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ024-038-039-182045-
JACKSON-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE ROSSVILLE...WILLARD...BILLARD AIRPORT...TECUMSEH...SILVER
LAKE AND TOPEKA. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 177 AND 188 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 345 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9550 3917 9633 3921 9618 3919 9617
      3919 9612 3920 9611 3919 9608 3916 9606
      3915 9609 3913 9604 3925 9603 3921 9560
      3918 9559 3907 9560 3905 9558 3907 9555
      3906 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 279DEG 9KT 3916 9600

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ054-055-182100-
LYON-OSAGE-
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE OSAGE CITY AND MELVERN LAKE. MOTORISTS ALONG THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 154 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9575 3844 9575 3844 9621 3873 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 266DEG 17KT 3859 9592

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ026-038>040-182130-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...
DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 430 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON...DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
TOPEKA ...LAWRENCE...MAPLE HILL...ROSSVILLE...WILLARD...SILVER
LAKE...DOVER...CLINTON LAKE...LONE STAR...GLOBE...TECUMSEH...
BERRYTON...PAULINE...WILLIAMSTOWN...RICHLAND...PERRY...LECOMPTON...
GRANTVILLE...CLINTON...BALDWIN CITY AND AUBURN. MOTORISTS ALONG THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 205 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 337 AND
355 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9550 3887 9550 3887 9579 3913 9624
      3919 9618 3919 9608 3916 9606 3915 9609
      3914 9604 3922 9603 3922 9585 3906 9518
      3897 9518 3898 9516 3874 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 308DEG 17KT 3915 9608

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             3 S OLSBURG             39.39N 96.62W
06/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN AS WELL

&&

KSANDERS