Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Topeka, KS

371 
WGUS73 KTOP 182333
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC045-059-139-190045-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130619T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
633 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND CENTRAL OSAGE
COUNTIES...

AT 628 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OTTAWA ARE 
EXPERIENCING BOTH STREET FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THERE HAVE 
ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF FLOWING WATER OVER SOME ROADS IN OVERBROOK. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARBONDALE...LYNDON...OTTAWA...OVERBROOK...POMONA...QUENEMO...
RANTOUL...SCRANTON...GLOBE...CENTROPOLIS AND POMONA LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 196.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9507 3864 9583 3884 9583 3884 9550
      3868 9506

$$

HENNECKE

126 
WGUS73 KTOP 190042
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC045-059-139-190052-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130619T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THE FLASH FLOODING
IS NO LONGER OCCURRING AND RUNOFF FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
RECEDE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3845 9507 3864 9583 3884 9583 3884 9550
      3868 9506

$$

HENNECKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-192045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE ON LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. AN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ055-182145-
OSAGE-
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...

THROUGH 445 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE POMONA LAKE AND LYNDON.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9550 3863 9551 3855 9571 3869 9585
      3878 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 309DEG 4KT 3871 9569

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             6 SSE OVERBROOK         38.71N 95.50W
06/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             7 SSE OVERBROOK         38.69N 95.51W
06/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             6 N POMONA              38.70N 95.45W
06/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             SCRANTON                38.78N 95.74W
06/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             OVERBROOK               38.78N 95.56W
06/18/2013  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW ROUNDS OF HAIL...LARGEST UP TO NICKEL SIZE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH