Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Topeka, KS

956 
WWUS53 KTOP 181900
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSC117-149-161-181915-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-130618T1915Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-MARSHALL-
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTH CENTRAL RILEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF OLSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAINE...WESTMORELAND AND WHEATON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9621 3932 9638 3953 9684 3957 9682
      3957 9681 3959 9681 3969 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 300DEG 19KT 3949 9655

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BOWEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIME FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ009-010-181830-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 130 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BLUE RAPIDS.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9642 3956 9648 3957 9673 3960 9688
      3975 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 280DEG 25KT 3967 9675

BOWEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ009-010-022-023-181900-
MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-WASHINGTON-
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF MARSHALL AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3962 9635 3939 9650 3959 9698 3976 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 290DEG 27KT 3959 9673

BOWEN