Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEA BREEZES WILL
MOVE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING A LITTLE STRONGER
THANKS TO THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SOME OF IT COULD MOVE BACK TOWARD THE WEST
COAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR...
GOES SOUNDER INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING WHERE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRY AIR OVER THE GULF MAKES IT
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW OVER
THE NATURE COAST DURING TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. THIS WOULD HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS...WHILE CLOSER TO THE LOW
THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE.
AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE LEFT THE 50 TO 60 POPS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND AND WITH STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH
30 POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE BASE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. KEPT GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ BUT COULD
IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  20  30
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  30
GIF  69  89  69  89 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  70  87  70  87 /  30  50  20  30
BKV  65  88  65  88 /  30  50  20  30
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
439 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW ZEPHYRHILLS       28.22N 82.21W
05/20/2013                   PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE FELL ON A HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MCKAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
446 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE TAMPA             27.93N 82.43W
05/20/2013  M40 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   C-MAN STATION

            WIND GUST TO 35 KTS REPORTED

&&

MCKAUGHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
449 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ039-202145-
LEVY-
449 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR OTTER CREEK...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRONSON...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT OTTER CREEK...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2952 8255 2948 8255 2949 8242 2948 8242
      2936 8241 2917 8275 2935 8294 2953 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 145DEG 5KT 2930 8273

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
453 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ055-060-202145-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
453 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MANATEE AND NORTHWESTERN
SARASOTA COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
BRADENTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT LAKEWOOD RANCH...
DESOTO LAKES AND FRUITVILLE...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2723 8228 2731 8254 2756 8240 2750 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 020DEG 5KT 2745 8234

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEFFNER                 28.00N 82.27W
05/20/2013                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN SEFFNER. NO INJURIES
            REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MCKAUGHAN