Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEA BREEZES WILL
MOVE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING A LITTLE STRONGER
THANKS TO THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SOME OF IT COULD MOVE BACK TOWARD THE WEST
COAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR...
GOES SOUNDER INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING WHERE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRY AIR OVER THE GULF MAKES IT
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW OVER
THE NATURE COAST DURING TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. THIS WOULD HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS...WHILE CLOSER TO THE LOW
THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE.
AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE LEFT THE 50 TO 60 POPS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND AND WITH STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH
30 POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE BASE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. KEPT GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ BUT COULD
IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  20  30
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  30
GIF  69  89  69  89 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  70  87  70  87 /  30  50  20  30
BKV  65  88  65  88 /  30  50  20  30
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ048-049-201945-
HERNANDO-PASCO-
255 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HERNANDO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PASCO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR GARDEN GROVE...OR NEAR BROOKSVILLE...NEARLY
STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...GARDEN GROVE...HERNANDO COUNTY
AIRPORT AND MASARYKTOWN...UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE
A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2847 8216 2830 8237 2850 8252 2862 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 318DEG 2KT 2849 8238

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
303 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 S BROOKSVILLE         28.53N 82.39W
05/20/2013  M0.25 INCH       HERNANDO           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCKAUGHAN

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