Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOME
WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7
INCHES. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT SO WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WE SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE WELL INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH
THE RATHER LIGHT FLOW CONVECTION WILL MOVE/DEVELOP WITH THE SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
THIS SHOULD HELP BRING THE CONVECTION BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO
THIS EVENING AND BROUGHT THEM BACK TO THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
HAZARDS. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZONES
SHORTLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
COAST. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18-20Z
THROUGH ABOUT 02-04Z. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE AT LAL...PGD...FMY
AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ON
LAND...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFT OUT INTO THE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE MORNING
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  71  86  71 /  40  30  50  20
FMY  90  70  89  70 /  50  30  60  20
GIF  89  69  87  69 /  50  30  60  20
SRQ  87  69  86  69 /  40  30  50  20
BKV  89  66  86  65 /  40  30  50  20
SPG  87  73  86  73 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ048-049-201945-
HERNANDO-PASCO-
255 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HERNANDO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PASCO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR GARDEN GROVE...OR NEAR BROOKSVILLE...NEARLY
STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...GARDEN GROVE...HERNANDO COUNTY
AIRPORT AND MASARYKTOWN...UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE
A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2847 8216 2830 8237 2850 8252 2862 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 318DEG 2KT 2849 8238

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
303 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 S BROOKSVILLE         28.53N 82.39W
05/20/2013  M0.25 INCH       HERNANDO           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCKAUGHAN