Alert archive / Tennessee / Tornado Watches in 2013

Tornado Watch 555

October 31, 20134 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 31, 2013, 7:54 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 31, 2013, 7:54 PM CDT (00:54 UTC)
Expired: Nov 1, 2013, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 70 kt

All 81 counties

Mississippi County, AR, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Obion County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Weakley County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 31, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	35 min
Oct 31, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	37 min
Oct 31, 8:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Weakley	42 min
Oct 31, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Gibson, Henry, Weakley	52 min
Oct 31, 9:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henry	27 min
Oct 31, 9:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Stewart	66 min
Oct 31, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson and 4 more	31 min
Oct 31, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler, Grayson, Ohio	42 min
Oct 31, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Fayette, Harrison, Scott, Woodford	29 min
Oct 31, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Sumner, Trousdale, Williamson, Wilson	45 min
Oct 31, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Harrison, Nicholas	29 min
Oct 31, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Clark, Fayette, Garrard, Jessamine and 4 more	28 min
Oct 31, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Casey, Garrard, Lincoln, Taylor	47 min
Oct 31, 11:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Clay, Jackson, Macon, Smith, Trousdale, Wilson	39 min
Oct 31, 11:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, DeKalb, Rutherford, Smith, Wilson	33 min
Oct 31, 11:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Clark, Garrard, Madison	32 min
Oct 31, 11:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Clay, Jackson, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith	61 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 29 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 684 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 787 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 31, 7:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	66 min
Oct 31, 7:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay	2 hr
Oct 31, 8:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bourbon, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Fleming and 11 more	2 hr
Oct 31, 9:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Boone, Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Carter and 9 more	6 hr
Oct 31, 10:11 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt and 33 more	64 min
Oct 31, 11:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Greenup, Harrison and 7 more	96 min
Oct 31, 11:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 28 more	5 hr
Nov 1, 2:37 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Letcher, Martin and 1 more	83 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2013 Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2013 Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2013 Every tornado watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.