Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
839 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION RIGHT ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

UPDATE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR ORD DOWN TO JUST
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE INSTABILITY AHEAD MARGINAL...WIND
STRUCTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH END WITH LOCAL VWPS SHOWING 50-80KNTS
3-5KFT. 00Z BNA RAOB SHOWING 0-3KM SRH 1000+. SWEAT INDICES JUST
UNDER 500. MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE MID-STATE PUSHING WIND GUSTS
40-50MPH AND THAT HAS CAUSED SOME TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. SQUALL
LINE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MID-STATE THROUGH 1-2AM...WITH NASHVILLE AFFECTED IN THE 9-11PM
TIME RANGE. STRONG WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL
BUT ALL LOACTIONS SHOULD SEE COOL DOWN BEFORE DAWN AS FRONT PASSES.
WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON WIND ADVISORY. IF FRONT DOESNT MOVE
LITTLE FASTER MAY HAVE TO EXTEND PLATEAU ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
.POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN MID STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS...

COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI JUST WEST OF POPLAR
BLUFF THEN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST EAST OF HOT SPRINGS. FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH DISCRETE LINES
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THESE LINES WILL WORK EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO INTERSECTING JETS.
850 MBAR JET CURRENTLY RUNNING 75 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH 90 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET RUNNING FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

UPDATE...
LATEST MODELS SHOWING SFC/BL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT
AROUND NASHVILLE AND LOCATIONS EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT...ESPECIALLY
PLATEAU...THUS HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z.

STILL EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AS AIRMASS RECOVERS AND DRIES SOME. THIS LINE EXPECTED NEAR
NASHVILLE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE WELL INTO THE
EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED
INTO ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT
ALLOWING FOR THE SUN TO WARM THOSE AREAS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT THE DRIER AIR TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING SO STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
PROBABLY NOT BEFORE 8 PM.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ007>011-026>034-
059>066-075-077>080-094-095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005-006-
022>025-056>058-093.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TNZ007>011-026>034-059>066-075-077>080-094-095-011030-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-
TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-
MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-LAWRENCE-GILES-
851 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ABUNDANT SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE MAY OCCUR.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

TNZ005-006-022>025-056>058-093-011030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-
LEWIS-WAYNE-
851 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ABUNDANT SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE MAY OCCUR.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTERS CAN MAKE REPORTS VIA TWITTER USING HASHTAG #TSPOTTER

TO MAKE A REPORT VIA FACEBOOK GO TO:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NASHVILLE.GOV

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

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