Tornado Watch 31

Issued

Feb 10, 2013, 6:58 AM CST (12:58 UTC)

Expired

Feb 10, 2013, 2:00 PM CST

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

50%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

30%

Ten or more severe wind reports

80%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

40%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

95%

• Mesoscale Discussion 135Feb 10, 5:12 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 136Feb 10, 6:20 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 138Feb 10, 10:19 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 139Feb 10, 10:53 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 141Feb 10, 1:59 PM CST

854 
WWUS20 KWNS 101308
SEL1  
SPC WW 101308
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-102000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
       WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
       EAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 700 AM UNTIL 200
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...WW 30...

DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED E TX SQLN LINE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ESEWD...WHILE STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG IT. THE LOW-LVL WLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
THIS...COUPLED WITH EXISTING STRENGTH OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR /AOA 60
KTS/ AND THE CONTINUED NWD SPREAD OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO FAR
E TX/LA... SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WITHIN THE LINE MAY REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE SQLN LINE NEAR
THE SABINE RVR EWD INTO CNTRL LA AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES
REGION/OVERCOMES EML CAP INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...CORFIDI

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2013Tornado Watches in Texas, 2013Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2013Every tornado watch in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.