Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Significant flooding continues over central Missouri this
afternoon from another localized swath of very excessive rainfall
with high impact in the Gasconade and Big Piney river basins with
other more minor flooding elsewhere. See the latest areal and
river flooding warnings for the latest info.

A synoptic scale front over northern MO is expected to drop south
into central and southern MO overnight tonight to the AR/MO line
by 12z Thu. Outflow boundaries also reside over southern MO and
northern AR. Pockets of clearing have allowed temperatures to rise
into the 80s in some spots (KLBO/Lebanon), and can't rule some
convection in localized spots in the near term. Overall it looks
like we will see an uptick in late night convection once again,
likely setting up a bit far south into SE KS and southern MO. Not
totally confident as to where tonight's heavy rain band will set up
and trends will need to be watched. NAM and GFS PWAT's still in the
2.00 inch range will allow storms to be efficient rain producers
once again. Best instability from the SREF is focus over the
southern quarter of MO, so believe heavier rain fall setting up
just a bit far south tonight seems plausible. Again, a low end
risk for strong to severe storms will exist, mainly a
wind/marginal hail risk.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Thursday: Ongoing precip is likely over at least the southern half
of the CWFA. The main sfc front will meander somewhere close to
the MO/AR line while the elevated baroclinic zone/850mb front will
continue to focus precipitation over southern MO and SE KS and
believe we will see more daytime precip on Thu than we have seen
in past days. Severe weather chances will be possible where
instability can develop during the day, but this is problematic to
determine (where and if it will occur). Again, the SREF focuses
the best instability over southern Missouri/SE KS versus central
and northern MO.

Thu night-Friday: Repeat Wed night and Thu with the same overall
ingredients, but possibly farther to the north back into central
MO again as the ECMWF/GFS/GEM all lift the front a bit to the
north. Thursday night and Friday morning has the potential to be a
higher impact in terms of flooding with a somewhat more robust
veering low level jet a potential set up for back-building west-
east convective bands. Ongoing convection will also likely last
into the day Friday morning.

Fri night-Saturday: Hate to say this, but a similar nighttime set
up will be possible for one more night. Again, a low level 850mb
convergence zone is still indicated to be over the region,
although the low level jet and moisture advection may not be quite
as robust versus Thu night.

Saturday night-Sunday: A break? Maybe, although not looking as
clear cut. Nighttime rain chances seem less focused, more over
our south central MO counties. This period may be a bit of lull.

Sunday night and early next week: The western upper level ridge
amplifies and troughing over the Great Lakes put the region back
into a similar pattern that we were in last week, more of a upper
level northwest flow pattern. Unfortunately, we will still be under
the gun as convection develops over the central Plains then shifts
southeast toward the region. Obviously hard to pinpoint timing,
but it doesn't look like we will see the baroclinic zone push far
enough out the region to preclude rain/tstm chances at times
through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Low level jet and moisture transport beginning to increase late
this evening and convection is beginning to become more widespread
across far southern Missouri towards the Arkansas border. This is
in the vicinity of the 850 frontal boundary. Expecting the
convection to continue increasing in coverage over the next few
hours and have it mainly affecting the BBG TAF initially and then
as the next wave approaches from the west after 09-10z...have it
affecting the JLN/SGF sites. Have VFR conditions outside of
convection and MVFR within.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
759 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  EXTREME FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS COUPLED WITH
  WEAK TO MODERATE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A FEW
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

  ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
  MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
  A RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
  MISSOURI. OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
  LEADING TO A RENEWED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE.

  WITH SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...
  FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WHEREVER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS DO
  DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
  MORNING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
  STORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
  REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
  THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND THE RISK FOR
  FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY
  AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
  TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW WET GLAIZE        37.89N 92.61W
08/07/2013                   CAMDEN             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLIER TODAY. ROUTE H CLOSED IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY T.

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW WET GLAIZE        37.89N 92.61W
08/07/2013                   CAMDEN             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLIER TODAY. ROUTE BB CLOSED IN
            BOTH DIRECTIONS APPROXIMATE 6 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 7.

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ENE SLIGO               37.78N 91.37W
08/07/2013                   DENT               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLIER TODAY. ROUTE TT CLOSED IN
            BOTH DIRECTIONSD DUE TO FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF
            CROOKED CREEK.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ENE SLIGO               37.77N 91.38W
08/07/2013                   DENT               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLIER TODAY. ROUTE TT IS CLOSED IN
            BOTH DIRECTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF CROOKED CREEK.

&&

GAGAN

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