Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

540 
WGUS73 KSGF 081605
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1105 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

MOC145-081615-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0100.000000T0000Z-130808T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEWTON MO-
1105 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NEWTON COUNTY...

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT EXCESS RUNOFF 
FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS 
IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING 
THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT 
TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3677 9462 3701 9462 3705 9461 3705 9407
      3704 9406 3675 9407

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
439 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2013

...SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION IN THE HOLLISTER AREAS THIS
MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

Another active night across the region. Thankfully, rain has been
avoiding central Missouri giving that area a brief, but much
needed break. The low level front settled to near the Mo/Ark
border last evening, and convection fired just to the north side
of this boundary and has been training for the past several hours
across far southern Missouri. KBBG measured an astounding 3.96" of
rain in one hour, with 6.17" in two hours. This area of rainfall
has hit a basin affecting the Hollister area very, very hard. These
extraordinary rainfall rates have been noted by radar estimates in
portions of McDonald, Barry, Stone and Taney counties.

The low level boundary will only slowly edge northward this
morning, with an MCS once again approaching from the west. The
morning looks increasingly wet for the area, though it will take
several hours for rain to enter the hard hit areas of central
Missouri, but rain will eventually reach this area later this
morning. Very heavy rainfall will once again be possible where
training storms set up. There is a limited risk of a few severe
wind gusts with the line of storms surging to the east northeast
out of south central Kansas. With marginal deep layer shear and
modest instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), localized damaging
wind gusts can be expected. The biggest concern, though, will
remain the heavy rainfall.

Like yesterday, rainfall will slowly ramp down during the daytime.
We will need to keep a very close eye on the how the low level
boundary behaves today into this evening. The key focus for our
heavy rain complexes the past week has been the low level front
(denoted best in a layer average of the 925/850mb winds) with
associated low level theta-e pooling along this boundary.
Convective initiation has been just north/northeast of this
boundary the past several nights. In addition, we will need to
watch the progress of a rather impressive mid level MCV see just
to the west of the Wichita area. Additional rainfall expected this
afternoon, though becoming a bit more scattered in nature.

Heading into tonight, 00z suite of models suggest the low level
boundary could set up anywhere from the Hwy 60 corridor to the Hwy
54 corridor. Have focused the highest PoPs in these areas.

The severe risk for tonight (and into Friday as well) remains
conditional on instability recharging across the area. With clouds
hanging around much of today, the best instability looks to set up
across far southern Missouri and to the south/southwest. If we can
get enough instability, shear remains marginal and supports a
localized wind and marginally severe hail risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

The pattern remains locked in place through at least Friday night.
00z suite of model output sends yet another complex of
thunderstorms through the region. As mentioned above, the key will
be where the low level boundary sets up. This does vary from model
to model, with some focusing on the Hwy 54 corridor once again and
others further south along the Hwy 60 corridor. With a lot
happening between now and Friday night, it's too tough to pin
point. The bottom line is that confidence is increasing that
another round of heavy rainfall is expected anywhere across the
region.

As has been advertised by the past few model run, there is a
glimmer of hope on the horizon. Still not confident in how the
weekend will unfold. Models vary on where the low level boundary
will set up. As a result it remains plausible that we could
receive more rain into Saturday, but confidence is shaky at this time.

Further into the extended, the pattern amplifies Sunday into much
of next week. This will send a cold front through the area early
next week and bring a much needed break to the area during the mid
to late week time frame. Will continue rain chances Sunday into
early Tuesday. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount of
cloud cover we see. Highs look to remain at/below average with
lows around average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Low level jet and moisture transport beginning to increase late
this evening and convection is beginning to become more widespread
across far southern Missouri towards the Arkansas border. This is
in the vicinity of the 850 frontal boundary. Expecting the
convection to continue increasing in coverage over the next few
hours and have it mainly affecting the BBG TAF initially and then
as the next wave approaches from the west after 09-10z...have it
affecting the JLN/SGF sites. Have VFR conditions outside of
convection and MVFR within.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
557 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  EXTREME FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL HAS FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
  MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
  REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXTREME
  ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

  AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
  INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS
  A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

  YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE EXACT
  LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
  FRONT SETS UP...WHICH CAN BE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALL
  INTERESTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE
  LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL
  NIGHT...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WHEREVER
  RAINFALL SETS UP ALONG THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
  ARE PERSISTENT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME. LOCATIONS THAT NORMALLY
  DO NOT FLOOD WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLOODING.

  THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  TONIGHT. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
  AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
  WEEKEND AS A FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE
  AGAIN EXPECTED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
  SIGNIFICANT. THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
  CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
  ACROSS THE REGION.

  IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT
  INDICES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
  NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
  TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
08/08/2013                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ST JAMES BRIDGE UNDER WATER IN DOWNTOWN HOLLISTER.
            SEVERAL BUSINESSES GETTING WATER IN THEM. TURKEY CREEK RV
            PARK IS FLOODED. SEVERAL RESIDENCES OFF RAILROAD AVENUE
            FLOODED.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
08/08/2013                   MCDONALD           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE H CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
08/08/2013                   TANEY              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE OR TWO MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY WASHED AWAY IN
            TURKEY CREEK.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
08/08/2013                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING IN NOEL WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED ON
            A ISLAND IN THE RIVER AT SEVERAL CAMPGROUNDS ALONG THE
            RIVER.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S POWELL              36.61N 94.18W
08/08/2013                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE E IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW EAGLE ROCK        36.58N 93.82W
08/08/2013                   BARRY              MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            BASED ON ROARING RIVER GAGE AT 8.32 AND RISING...SEVERAL
            CAMPGROUNDS ARE FLOODED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MGRIFFIN