Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Springfield, MO

555 
WGUS73 KSGF 081600
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1100 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

MOC091-153-081700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0099.000000T0000Z-130808T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWELL MO-OZARK MO-
1100 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR OZARK
AND SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTIES...

RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER 
THE WARNED AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING...MOST OF THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD ENDED. 

THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS OVER THE 
REGION WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH 
THE MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9276 3679 9166 3679 9168 3649 9168
      3649 9277

$$

982 
WGUS73 KSGF 081655
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

MOC091-153-081704-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0099.000000T0000Z-130808T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWELL MO-OZARK MO-
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT FOR OZARK AND
SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTIES...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING 
FOR THIS AREA...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED 
AREA...HOWEVER RESIDUAL FLOODING...SLOW WATER RISES AND ELEVATED WATER 
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3681 9276 3679 9166 3679 9168 3649 9168
      3649 9277

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
439 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2013

...SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION IN THE HOLLISTER AREAS THIS
MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

Another active night across the region. Thankfully, rain has been
avoiding central Missouri giving that area a brief, but much
needed break. The low level front settled to near the Mo/Ark
border last evening, and convection fired just to the north side
of this boundary and has been training for the past several hours
across far southern Missouri. KBBG measured an astounding 3.96" of
rain in one hour, with 6.17" in two hours. This area of rainfall
has hit a basin affecting the Hollister area very, very hard. These
extraordinary rainfall rates have been noted by radar estimates in
portions of McDonald, Barry, Stone and Taney counties.

The low level boundary will only slowly edge northward this
morning, with an MCS once again approaching from the west. The
morning looks increasingly wet for the area, though it will take
several hours for rain to enter the hard hit areas of central
Missouri, but rain will eventually reach this area later this
morning. Very heavy rainfall will once again be possible where
training storms set up. There is a limited risk of a few severe
wind gusts with the line of storms surging to the east northeast
out of south central Kansas. With marginal deep layer shear and
modest instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), localized damaging
wind gusts can be expected. The biggest concern, though, will
remain the heavy rainfall.

Like yesterday, rainfall will slowly ramp down during the daytime.
We will need to keep a very close eye on the how the low level
boundary behaves today into this evening. The key focus for our
heavy rain complexes the past week has been the low level front
(denoted best in a layer average of the 925/850mb winds) with
associated low level theta-e pooling along this boundary.
Convective initiation has been just north/northeast of this
boundary the past several nights. In addition, we will need to
watch the progress of a rather impressive mid level MCV see just
to the west of the Wichita area. Additional rainfall expected this
afternoon, though becoming a bit more scattered in nature.

Heading into tonight, 00z suite of models suggest the low level
boundary could set up anywhere from the Hwy 60 corridor to the Hwy
54 corridor. Have focused the highest PoPs in these areas.

The severe risk for tonight (and into Friday as well) remains
conditional on instability recharging across the area. With clouds
hanging around much of today, the best instability looks to set up
across far southern Missouri and to the south/southwest. If we can
get enough instability, shear remains marginal and supports a
localized wind and marginally severe hail risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

The pattern remains locked in place through at least Friday night.
00z suite of model output sends yet another complex of
thunderstorms through the region. As mentioned above, the key will
be where the low level boundary sets up. This does vary from model
to model, with some focusing on the Hwy 54 corridor once again and
others further south along the Hwy 60 corridor. With a lot
happening between now and Friday night, it's too tough to pin
point. The bottom line is that confidence is increasing that
another round of heavy rainfall is expected anywhere across the
region.

As has been advertised by the past few model run, there is a
glimmer of hope on the horizon. Still not confident in how the
weekend will unfold. Models vary on where the low level boundary
will set up. As a result it remains plausible that we could
receive more rain into Saturday, but confidence is shaky at this time.

Further into the extended, the pattern amplifies Sunday into much
of next week. This will send a cold front through the area early
next week and bring a much needed break to the area during the mid
to late week time frame. Will continue rain chances Sunday into
early Tuesday. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount of
cloud cover we see. Highs look to remain at/below average with
lows around average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Low level jet and moisture transport beginning to increase late
this evening and convection is beginning to become more widespread
across far southern Missouri towards the Arkansas border. This is
in the vicinity of the 850 frontal boundary. Expecting the
convection to continue increasing in coverage over the next few
hours and have it mainly affecting the BBG TAF initially and then
as the next wave approaches from the west after 09-10z...have it
affecting the JLN/SGF sites. Have VFR conditions outside of
convection and MVFR within.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
759 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  EXTREME FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS COUPLED WITH
  WEAK TO MODERATE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A FEW
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

  ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
  MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
  A RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
  MISSOURI. OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
  LEADING TO A RENEWED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE.

  WITH SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...
  FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WHEREVER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS DO
  DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
  MORNING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
  STORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
  REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
  THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND THE RISK FOR
  FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY
  AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
  TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
08/08/2013                   MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 59 HAS WATER OVER THE ROADWAY AND DEBRIS

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

MOZ102-103-080945-
BARRY MO-STONE MO-
357 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARRY AND SOUTHERN STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 356 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF SELIGMAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
CASSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...EXETER...
GOLDEN...KIMBERLING CITY...LAMPE...RIDGLEY...SELIGMAN...SHELL KNOB...
WASHBURN AND WAYNE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE ROARING
RIVER STATE PARK AND TABLE ROCK LAKE.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3663 9408 3664 9407 3672 9407 3673 9339
      3649 9336 3649 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 256DEG 23KT 3652 9385

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
423 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
08/08/2013                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TANEY COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT AND RESCUE IS EVACUATING AND
            PERFORMING HIGH WATER RESCUES ALONG TURKEY CREEK IN
            HOLLISTER. THE HIDDEN VALLEY MOBILE HOME PARK AND OLD
            MILL ROAD AREA IS BEING AFFECTED. UNKNOWN HOW MANY
            AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
08/08/2013                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ST JAMES BRIDGE UNDER WATER IN DOWNTOWN HOLLISTER.
            SEVERAL BUSINESSES GETTING WATER IN THEM. TURKEY CREEK RV
            PARK IS FLOODED. SEVERAL RESIDENCES OFF RAILROAD AVENUE
            FLOODED.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
08/08/2013                   MCDONALD           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE H CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
08/08/2013                   TANEY              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE OR TWO MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY WASHED AWAY IN
            TURKEY CREEK.

&&

MGRIFFIN