Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Springfield, MO

874 
WWUS53 KSGF 170439
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOC039-167-170448-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-130617T0500Z/
CEDAR MO-POLK MO-
1139 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK AND EAST
CENTRAL CEDAR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST POLK COUNTY...AND NO LONGER POSES 
AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.  

HOWEVER...THIS STORM AND OTHERS ACROSS POLK AND CEDAR COUNTIES WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. 

LAT...LON 3783 9358 3781 9357 3781 9352 3768 9352
      3763 9362 3763 9371 3771 9375 3780 9364
      3783 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 244DEG 19KT 3777 9352

$$

RUNNELS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WHAT WE ARE MISSING SO FAR
TODAY IS A STRONG ENOUGH FORCING MECHANISM. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MO/ARK STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF STALLED MCV TURNED SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY REMAINS MESSY. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL END OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR...
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHORT RANGE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF SYSTEM MOTION VECTORS (BOTH REGULAR AND FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS) INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS
SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY DAYBREAK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING ALL THAT FAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO WE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ALTER RAIN
CHANCES AS NEEDED. THIS LINE WILL POSE A LIMITED WIND RISK...AS IT
STRENGTH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS BEHAVES TONIGHT. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE CONDITIONAL ON BEING ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.
WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WINDS DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AVOIDS THE AREA...GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MONITORING MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE IMPORTANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

12Z SUITE OF OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DOES REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S
CORRELATE WELL TO HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

REINSERTED VCTS THIS EVENING AT THE KSGF SITE BASED UPON RECENT
RADAR TRENDS. WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH
THESE CELLS SHORTLY LIKELY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. DESPITE CONVECTION FIRING SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST AND
NORTH...MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST BULK OF CONVECTION TO TAKE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS ALL BUT KJLN TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
12Z WITH OUTFLOW BASED TSRA LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...RUNNELS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180315-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN A
ELEVATED THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR UP TO 60 MPH WINDS.

OVERALL THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS...THOUGH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT OF FLOODING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN
RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THERE
IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
06/16/2013                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD AT BOONVILLE AND
            CENTRAL

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONWAY                  37.50N 92.82W
06/16/2013                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS ON SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED
            INCLUDING AT BRUSH CREEK. AMETHIST ROAD IS ALSO REPORTED
            FLOODED.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1015 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
06/16/2013                   DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN THE CITY
            OF BUFFALO

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
06/16/2013                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PORTIONS OF LONE PINE IMPASSABLE...INCLUDING JUST SOUTH
            OF BATTLEFIELD AND AT REPUBLIC ROAD. WATER WAS REPORTED
            TO BE ONE FOOT DEEP INTO BUSINESSES AT LONE PINE AND
            REPUBLIC ROAD.

&&

SRUNNELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOZ078-079-170430-
CEDAR MO-POLK MO-
1059 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR AND WEST
CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNNEGAN...OR 11 MILES WEST OF BOLIVAR...
MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3779 9344 3756 9347 3757 9371 3758 9371
      3758 9380 3779 9379
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 090DEG 2KT 3767 9360

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
06/16/2013                   POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS HAVE A FOOT AND A HALF OF RUNNING WATER IN
            THE CITY.

&&

LDOOLEY