Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Springfield, MO

302 
WWUS53 KSGF 170130
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
830 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOC077-170140-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-130617T0130Z/
GREENE MO-
830 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3713 9307 3713 9325 3726 9324 3724 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 286DEG 3KT 3719 9315

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WHAT WE ARE MISSING SO FAR
TODAY IS A STRONG ENOUGH FORCING MECHANISM. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MO/ARK STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF STALLED MCV TURNED SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY REMAINS MESSY. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL END OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR...
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHORT RANGE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF SYSTEM MOTION VECTORS (BOTH REGULAR AND FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS) INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS
SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY DAYBREAK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING ALL THAT FAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO WE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ALTER RAIN
CHANCES AS NEEDED. THIS LINE WILL POSE A LIMITED WIND RISK...AS IT
STRENGTH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS BEHAVES TONIGHT. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE CONDITIONAL ON BEING ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.
WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WINDS DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AVOIDS THE AREA...GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MONITORING MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE IMPORTANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

12Z SUITE OF OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DOES REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S
CORRELATE WELL TO HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

REINSERTED VCTS THIS EVENING AT THE KSGF SITE BASED UPON RECENT
RADAR TRENDS. WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH
THESE CELLS SHORTLY LIKELY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. DESPITE CONVECTION FIRING SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST AND
NORTH...MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST BULK OF CONVECTION TO TAKE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS ALL BUT KJLN TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
12Z WITH OUTFLOW BASED TSRA LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...RUNNELS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
412 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
  REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE
  WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND UP TO 50 MPH
  WINDS...THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WITH A FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER
  LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

  ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
  NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH
  THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE
  RISK FOR LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AS THE LINE OF
  STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREA EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
  REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE
  MAIN RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLOODING. THERE IS A
  CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LINE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
  THURSDAY.

  THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
  WEEKEND AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N WASOLA              36.87N 92.58W
06/16/2013  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             5 N WASOLA              36.87N 92.58W
06/16/2013  M1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LDOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOZ070-170030-
PULASKI MO-
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OZARK SPRINGS...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3794 9202 3768 9203 3777 9241 3794 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 285DEG 17KT 3784 9230

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
06/16/2013  E65 MPH          OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

LDOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOZ105-170100-
OZARK MO-
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...OR 23 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3649 9258 3650 9259 3666 9259 3669 9229
      3649 9222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 345DEG 23KT 3661 9247

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
06/16/2013  E65.00 MPH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

LDOOLEY