Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WHAT WE ARE MISSING SO FAR
TODAY IS A STRONG ENOUGH FORCING MECHANISM. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MO/ARK STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF STALLED MCV TURNED SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY REMAINS MESSY. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL END OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR...
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHORT RANGE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF SYSTEM MOTION VECTORS (BOTH REGULAR AND FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS) INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS
SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY DAYBREAK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING ALL THAT FAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO WE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ALTER RAIN
CHANCES AS NEEDED. THIS LINE WILL POSE A LIMITED WIND RISK...AS IT
STRENGTH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS BEHAVES TONIGHT. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE CONDITIONAL ON BEING ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.
WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WINDS DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AVOIDS THE AREA...GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MONITORING MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE IMPORTANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

12Z SUITE OF OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DOES REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S
CORRELATE WELL TO HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

REINSERTED VCTS THIS EVENING AT THE KSGF SITE BASED UPON RECENT
RADAR TRENDS. WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH
THESE CELLS SHORTLY LIKELY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. DESPITE CONVECTION FIRING SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST AND
NORTH...MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST BULK OF CONVECTION TO TAKE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS ALL BUT KJLN TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
12Z WITH OUTFLOW BASED TSRA LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...RUNNELS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
808 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
808 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN A
LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR UP TO 60 MPH WINDS.

OVERALL THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS...THOUGH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THIS AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AS THE LINE OF STORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREA EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
  REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE
  MAIN RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLOODING. THERE IS A
  CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LINE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
  THURSDAY.

  THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
  WEEKEND AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RUNNELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOZ070-170030-
PULASKI MO-
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OZARK SPRINGS...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3794 9202 3768 9203 3777 9241 3794 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 285DEG 17KT 3784 9230

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
06/16/2013  E65 MPH          OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

LDOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MOZ105-170100-
OZARK MO-
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...OR 23 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3649 9258 3650 9259 3666 9259 3669 9229
      3649 9222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 345DEG 23KT 3661 9247

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
06/16/2013  E65.00 MPH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

LDOOLEY

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