Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LOCALIZED...VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION CONTINUES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH ONE MEASURED REPORT (7 SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD) OF IN EXCESS OF 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES
WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IS UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS/OK AND INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.

WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
RISK AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER MAKING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY
IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
POINTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY TRYING TO
GET GOING OVER OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL
JET STREAK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INTO AN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECTING SOME MORNING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDS UP TODAY AS IT WILL
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WILL A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. BEST FOCUS FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE WITH BETTER SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH AND PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA TODAY.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MAIN WAVE KICKING THROUGH WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
EACH OF THESES WAVES COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUOUS WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST OF
ROUGHLY 0.75 TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM AND VERY
HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL SUBTLE FORMS
OF LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN (PERIODIC)
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE GENERAL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
  AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
  DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE
  STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
  PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

  THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK IN AND AROUND THE
  SPRINGFIELD...BATTLEFIELD AND NIXA AREAS. LOCALLY THREE TO FIVE
  INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NEARLY
  STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE HOURS. THIS
  IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
  IN A VERY FAST RUNOFF OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND A RAPID RISE
  ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
  THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
  THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONCE
  AGAIN...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS
  SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
  INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THESE
  DISTURBANCES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM RISK...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
  THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N REPUBLIC            37.15N 93.48W
06/15/2013                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
            INTERSECTIONS OF JAMES RIVER EXPRESSWAY AND SUNSHINE
            ROAD.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
139 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S SPRINGFIELD         37.14N 93.29W
06/15/2013                   GREENE             MO   NEWSPAPER

            NEAR SOUTH CAMPBELL RD AND REPUBLIC RD. ROADWAY IS UNDER
            THREE FEET OF WATER.

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MOZ077-088-093-152015-
BARTON MO-JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
226 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JASPER...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON AND
SOUTHERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTHERN JOPLIN...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
GALENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ATLAS...BROOKLYN
HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...CARYTOWN...CLIFF
VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...IRON GATES...JASPER...
JOPLIN...LAKESIDE...LEAWOOD...NECK CITY...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...
PURCELL...REDINGS MILL...SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK
ESTATES...SILVER CREEK...WACO AND WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 19 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3737 9460 3738 9408 3700 9438 3701 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 207DEG 16KT 3707 9448

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MOZ066-152030-
VERNON MO-
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN VERNON COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MILO...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEVADA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3806 9433 3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421
      3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9411 3804 9407
      3803 9406 3793 9406 3771 9417 3775 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 195DEG 15KT 3782 9425

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S COLUMBUS            37.14N 94.84W
06/15/2013  E60 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR ZERO WITH DRIVING RAIN.

0230 PM     HAIL             2 S COLUMBUS            37.14N 94.84W
06/15/2013  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             3 E COLUMBUS            37.17N 94.79W
06/15/2013  E1.25 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH